Puebla crestMonterrey crest

Puebla v Monterrey bet builder

Thursday 22 October 2026, 02:00 · Liga MX

A research tool, not a bookmaker, we build the picks, you place them with your own bookie. We don't take bets. 18+

The model's build

No record in this league yet, the market's prices only

  • Monterrey or draw

    78% the model

    Our board prices this at 78%, the same number shown on the homepage and previews. (API-Football's own model has it at 90%.)

    1.29 +

  • Over 2.5 Goals

    76% the model

    Goals: the sides' goal rates read 1.50 and 2.50, so Over 2.5 Goals at 76%.

    1.31 +
Combined fair odds2 legs, 59% chance all land
1.69

Built from the bookmakers' prices for Puebla v Monterrey, 59% combined. Legs from one game move together, so read it as a guide.

Alternative picks

  • Over 1.5 Goals 76% 1.23 +
  • Under 3.5 Goals 67% 1.35 +
  • Puebla or Draw Double Chance 57% 1.78 +
  • Monterrey Away Win 51% 1.96 +

More to build with

Extra markets · not tracked

Player form

Projected from club-season form, informational, not part of our verified record. Build your own bet.

  • L. Ocampos Monterrey
    Shots on target 1+

    L. Ocampos: 1.33 shots on target a game over 9 games, away against a side conceding 4.5 a game

  • L. Orellano Monterrey
    Shots on target 1+

    L. Orellano: 1.10 shots on target a game over 10 games, away against a side conceding 4.5 a game

  • K. Velasco Puebla
    Shots on target 1+

    K. Velasco: 0.86 shots on target a game over 7 games, home against a side conceding 4.5 a game

  • M. Tomás Puebla
    Shots on target 1+

    M. Tomás: 0.78 shots on target a game over 9 games, home against a side conceding 4.5 a game

Projections from club-season form only. We never record or grade player markets. They sit outside our verified record by design. 18+ · BeGambleAware.

Match stats

Projected from each side's real season averages, and priced by us rather than taken from a bookmaker. These sit outside the tracked record, so build your own bet from them.

  • Over 9.5 Match Corners 53%
    Corners: Puebla avg 3.5 for/7.5 against, Monterrey avg 3.8 for/5.0 against so expected 9.9 match corners
  • Over 7.5 Match Corners 77%
    Corners: Puebla avg 3.5 for/7.5 against, Monterrey avg 3.8 for/5.0 against so expected 9.9 match corners; the safer line
  • Over 3.5 Match Cards 50%
    Cards: Puebla avg 1.4/game, Monterrey avg 2.3/game so expected 3.7 match cards
  • Over 1.5 Match Cards 80%+
    Cards: Puebla avg 1.4/game, Monterrey avg 2.3/game so expected 3.7 match cards; the safer line
  • Over 20.5 Match Fouls 54%
    Fouls: Puebla avg 9.3/game, Monterrey avg 11.8/game so expected 21.1 match fouls
  • Over 16.5 Match Fouls 80%+
    Fouls: Puebla avg 9.3/game, Monterrey avg 11.8/game so expected 21.1 match fouls; the safer line
  • Over 22.5 Match Shots 36%
    Shots: Puebla avg 11.0/game, Monterrey avg 10.0/game so expected 21.0 match shots
  • Over 16.5 Match Shots 80%+
    Shots: Puebla avg 11.0/game, Monterrey avg 10.0/game so expected 21.0 match shots; the safer line

How this is built

The model prices every fixture before kick-off. This build is its strongest team-market legs for this game: the result, goals, both teams to score. The number beside a leg is the model's own chance; the price is the fair price at that chance. Player legs are information, never part of the record. This league is not on the record yet, so these legs are the model's read of the market, not a graded call.

The record The match page

The market's own prices

Bookmaker prices with the margin still in. These are the market's numbers, not the model's, and no record of ours stands behind them. A price at 65% still fails about one time in three.

Market singles

  • Monterrey under 2.5 goals 84% market Bet365
    1.22 +
  • Over 1.5 goals 83% market Bet365
    1.25 +
  • Monterrey or Draw (double chance) 83% market William Hill
    1.29 +
  • Puebla or Monterrey (double chance) 81% market William Hill
    1.30 +
  • Over 7.5 corners 81% market Betano
    1.24 +
  • Monterrey over 1 goals 79% market Marathon Bet
    1.30 +
  • Under 2 second half goals 78% market Marathon Bet
    1.28 +
  • Over 0.5 first half goals 77% market Bet365
    1.36 +
  • Under 3.5 goals 75% market Bet365
    1.36 +
  • Puebla under 1.5 goals 75% market Bet365
    1.36 +
  • Puebla over 0.5 goals 74% market Bet365
    1.40 +
  • Over 1 second half goals 74% market Marathon Bet
    1.36 +

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Pro

The singles we'd pick ourselves, with the research and the price behind each one

  • The daily singles. Each one cleared three checks: the line landed in at least 9 of the two sides' last 12 games, a UK price of 1.35 or more, and our model's number clears what the price needs. Usually 0 to 5 a day, one unit each.
  • The case for each, put together. The last 12 against what the price needs, who is missing, the head to head, and the best price at a UK bookmaker, in one place.
  • The desk's card on every fixture it covers. Its verdict, every market graded, and the reason written down. And tomorrow's singles the night before.

Every pick published before kick-off, graded in public. The losing ones stay on the page.

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18+. BeGambleAware.org. Analysis and opinion, not betting advice.