Poland crestSweden crest

Poland v Sweden bet builder

Tuesday 17 November 2026, 19:45 · UEFA Nations League

A research tool, not a bookmaker, we build the picks, you place them with your own bookie. We don't take bets. 18+

The model's build

No record in this league yet, the market's prices only
  • Poland or Draw

    73% the model

    Win if home team wins or draws.

    1.38 +
  • Under 3.5 Goals

    64% the model

    Priced from the market's consensus.

    1.56 +
Combined fair odds2 legs, 46% chance all land
2.15

Built from the bookmakers' prices for Poland v Sweden, 46% combined. Legs from one game move together, so read it as a guide.

Alternative picks

  • Sweden or Draw Double Chance 65% 1.49 +
  • Over 2.5 Goals 63% 1.60 +

More to build with

Extra markets · not tracked

Player form

Projected from club-season form, informational, not part of our verified record. Build your own bet.

  • V. Gyökeres Sweden
    Shots on target 1+

    V. Gyökeres: 0.61 shots on target a game over 36 games [WC form: 1.67/90 over 3 games (270 min), 39% weight

  • J. Kamiński Poland
    Shots on target 1+

    J. Kamiński: 0.81 shots on target a game over 37 games, home against a side conceding 4.5 a game

  • M. Reguła Poland
    Shots on target 1+

    M. Reguła: 0.68 shots on target a game over 31 games, home against a side conceding 4.5 a game

  • B. Nygren Sweden
    Shots on target 1+

    B. Nygren: 1.00 shots on target a game over 38 games [WC form: 0.00/90 over 3 games (130 min), 24% weight

  • E. Stroud Sweden
    Shots on target 1+

    E. Stroud: 0.71 shots on target a game over 28 games [WC form: 0.00/90 over 3 games (101 min), 19% weight

  • B. Zeneli Sweden
    Shots on target 1+

    B. Zeneli: 0.41 shots on target a game over 27 games [WC form: 2.65/90 over 1 games (34 min), 7% weight

  • W. Nowak Poland
    Shots on target 1+

    W. Nowak: 0.45 shots on target a game over 31 games, home against a side conceding 4.5 a game

Projections from club-season form only. We never record or grade player markets. They sit outside our verified record by design. 18+ · BeGambleAware.

How this is built

The model prices every fixture before kick-off. This build is its strongest team-market legs for this game: the result, goals, both teams to score. The number beside a leg is the model's own chance; the price is the fair price at that chance. Player legs are information, never part of the record. This league is not on the record yet, so these legs are the model's read of the market, not a graded call.

The market's own prices

Bookmaker prices with the margin still in. These are the market's numbers, not the model's, and no record of ours stands behind them. A price at 65% still fails about one time in three.

Market singles

  • Poland or Sweden (double chance) 85% market 1xBet
    1.18 +
  • Over 0.5 first half goals 83% market 1xBet
    1.20 +
  • Over 2 goals 81% market 1xBet
    1.24 +
  • Under 2 second half goals 78% market 1xBet
    1.29 +
  • Over 1 second half goals 76% market 1xBet
    1.31 +
  • Poland or Draw (double chance) 72% market 1xBet
    1.38 +
  • Under 3.5 goals 71% market 1xBet
    1.40 +
  • Over 1 first half goals 68% market 1xBet
    1.46 +
Pro

The singles we'd pick ourselves, with the research and the price behind each one

  • The daily singles. Each one cleared three checks: the line landed in at least 9 of the two sides' last 12 games, a UK price of 1.35 or more, and our model's number clears what the price needs. Usually 0 to 5 a day, one unit each.
  • The case for each, put together. The last 12 against what the price needs, who is missing, the head to head, and the best price at a UK bookmaker, in one place.
  • The desk's card on every fixture it covers. Its verdict, every market graded, and the reason written down. And tomorrow's singles the night before.

Every pick published before kick-off, graded in public. The losing ones stay on the page.

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18+. BeGambleAware.org. Analysis and opinion, not betting advice.