Monza v Fiorentina bet builder
A research tool, not a bookmaker, we build the picks, you place them with your own bookie. We don't take bets. 18+
The model's build
On the record-
1.34 +
Fiorentina or draw
74% the modelRecord this market has landed 92% across 13 graded picks
Our board prices this at 74%, the same number shown on the homepage and previews. (API-Football's own model has it at 90%.)
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1.03 +
Over 2.5 Goals
80%+ the modelRecord this market has landed 64% across 120 graded picks
Goals: the sides' goal rates read 3.50 and 3.50, so Over 2.5 Goals at 80%+.
The model puts this 2-leg build at 72% combined for Monza v Fiorentina. Legs from one game move together, so read the combined figure as a guide. Every published call is graded in public.
Alternative picks
- Over 1.5 Goals 79% 1.19 +
- Under 4.5 Goals 77% 1.22 +
- Under 3.5 Goals 61% 1.53 +
- Monza or Draw Double Chance 57% 1.79 +
More to build with
Extra markets · not trackedPlayer form
Projected from club-season form, informational, not part of our verified record. Build your own bet.
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Gustavo Varela MonzaShots on target 1+
Gustavo Varela: 1.33 shots on target a game over 9 games, home against a side conceding 4.5 a game
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Dany Mota MonzaShots on target 1+
Dany Mota: 1.00 shots on target a game over 7 games, home against a side conceding 4.5 a game
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Franco Mastantuono FiorentinaShots on target 1+
Franco Mastantuono: 1.10 shots on target a game over 10 games, away against a side conceding 4.5 a game
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Jay Robinson MonzaShots on target 1+
Jay Robinson: 0.88 shots on target a game over 8 games, home against a side conceding 4.5 a game
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S. Birindelli MonzaShots on target 1+
S. Birindelli: 0.60 shots on target a game over 10 games, home against a side conceding 4.5 a game
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Gustavo Varela MonzaShots on target 2+
Gustavo Varela: 1.33 shots on target a game over 9 games, home against a side conceding 4.5 a game
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A. Atta FiorentinaShots on target 1+
A. Atta: 0.60 shots on target a game over 5 games, away against a side conceding 4.5 a game
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Franco Mastantuono FiorentinaAnytime scorer
Franco Mastantuono: 0.40 goals a game over 10 games, away against a side conceding 2.27 a game
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Mateo Pellegrino FiorentinaShots on target 1+
Mateo Pellegrino: 0.50 shots on target a game over 10 games, away against a side conceding 4.5 a game
Projections from club-season form only. We never record or grade player markets. They sit outside our verified record by design. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
Match stats
Projected from each side's real season averages, and priced by us rather than taken from a bookmaker. These sit outside the tracked record, so build your own bet from them.
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Over 8.5 Match Corners 51%Corners: Monza avg 4.2 for/4.4 against, Fiorentina avg 4.4 for/4.5 against so expected 8.8 match corners
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Over 6.5 Match Corners 77%Corners: Monza avg 4.2 for/4.4 against, Fiorentina avg 4.4 for/4.5 against so expected 8.8 match corners; the safer line
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Over 4.5 Match Cards 39%Cards: Monza avg 2.0/game, Fiorentina avg 2.1/game so expected 4.1 match cards
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Over 2.5 Match Cards 77%Cards: Monza avg 2.0/game, Fiorentina avg 2.1/game so expected 4.1 match cards; the safer line
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Over 24.5 Match Fouls 42%Fouls: Monza avg 11.9/game, Fiorentina avg 11.8/game so expected 23.7 match fouls
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Over 20.5 Match Fouls 74%Fouls: Monza avg 11.9/game, Fiorentina avg 11.8/game so expected 23.7 match fouls; the safer line
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Over 26.5 Match Shots 77%Shots: Monza avg 13.9/game, Fiorentina avg 16.8/game so expected 30.7 match shots
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Over 22.5 Match Shots 80%+Shots: Monza avg 13.9/game, Fiorentina avg 16.8/game so expected 30.7 match shots; the safer line
How this is built
The model prices every fixture before kick-off. This build is its strongest team-market legs for this game: the result, goals, both teams to score. The number beside a leg is the model's own chance; the price is the fair price at that chance. Player legs are information, never part of the record. This league is on the record: every published call here is graded in public.
The market's own prices
Bookmaker prices with the margin still in. These are the market's numbers, not the model's, and no record of ours stands behind them. A price at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles
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Under 2 first half goals 83% market Marathon Bet1.21 +
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Monza or Fiorentina (double chance) 82% market Bet3651.28 +
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Under 4 goals 82% market 1xBet1.27 +
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Under 2.5 second half goals 80% market Bet3651.28 +
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Over 2 goals 80% market 1xBet1.29 +
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Fiorentina over 1 goals 80% market 1xBet1.28 +
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Over 0.5 first half goals 79% market Bet3651.28 +
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Monza over 0.5 goals 79% market Bet3651.28 +
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Fiorentina under 2.5 goals 79% market Bet3651.28 +
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Fiorentina or Draw (double chance) 79% market Bet3651.33 +
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Over 1 second half goals 78% market Marathon Bet1.28 +
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The singles we'd pick ourselves, with the research and the price behind each one
- The daily singles. Each one cleared three checks: the line landed in at least 9 of the two sides' last 12 games, a UK price of 1.35 or more, and our model's number clears what the price needs. Usually 0 to 5 a day, one unit each.
- The case for each, put together. The last 12 against what the price needs, who is missing, the head to head, and the best price at a UK bookmaker, in one place.
- The desk's card on every fixture it covers. Its verdict, every market graded, and the reason written down. And tomorrow's singles the night before.
Every pick published before kick-off, graded in public. The losing ones stay on the page.