Liverpool v Manchester City bet builder

Sunday 11 October 2026, 16:30 · Premier League

A research tool, not a bookmaker, we build the picks, you place them with your own bookie. We don't take bets. 18+

The model's build

On the record
  • Manchester City or Draw

    the model's number, for members

    Record this market has landed 92% across 13 graded picks

    1.43 +
  • The call and the price are free on every leg. The model's number and the desk's reason on each are in FBB Pro, seven days for £1, with the combined price and the chance the whole build lands.
  • Over 2.5 Goals

    Record this market has landed 64% across 116 graded picks

Combined fair oddsThe model's combined price on this build, and the chance every leg lands. Seven days for £1.
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Alternative picks

  • Under 4.5 Goals 1.22 +
  • Liverpool or Draw Double Chance 1.67 +
  • Under 3.5 Goals 1.52 +

More to build with

Extra markets · not tracked

Match stats

Projected from each side's real season averages, and priced by us rather than taken from a bookmaker. These sit outside the tracked record, so build your own bet from them.

  • Over 10.5 Match Corners 45%
    Corners: Liverpool avg 5.4 for/5.0 against, Manchester City avg 6.5 for/3.6 against so expected 10.3 match corners
  • Over 7.5 Match Corners 80%+
    Corners: Liverpool avg 5.4 for/5.0 against, Manchester City avg 6.5 for/3.6 against so expected 10.3 match corners; the safer line
  • Over 3.5 Match Cards 44%
    Cards: Liverpool avg 2.0/game, Manchester City avg 1.4/game so expected 3.4 match cards
  • Over 1.5 Match Cards 80%+
    Cards: Liverpool avg 2.0/game, Manchester City avg 1.4/game so expected 3.4 match cards; the safer line
  • Over 22.5 Match Fouls 54%
    Fouls: Liverpool avg 12.0/game, Manchester City avg 11.1/game so expected 23.1 match fouls
  • Over 18.5 Match Fouls 80%+
    Fouls: Liverpool avg 12.0/game, Manchester City avg 11.1/game so expected 23.1 match fouls; the safer line
  • Over 26.5 Match Shots 50%
    Shots: Liverpool avg 11.3/game, Manchester City avg 15.3/game so expected 26.7 match shots
  • Over 22.5 Match Shots 79%
    Shots: Liverpool avg 11.3/game, Manchester City avg 15.3/game so expected 26.7 match shots; the safer line

How this is built

The model prices every fixture before kick-off. This build is its strongest team-market legs for this game: the result, goals, both teams to score. The number beside a leg is the model's own chance; the price is the fair price at that chance. Player legs are information, never part of the record. This league is on the record: every published call here is graded in public.

The market's own prices

Bookmaker prices with the margin still in. These are the market's numbers, not the model's, and no record of ours stands behind them. A price at 65% still fails about one time in three.

Market singles

  • Under 2 first half goals 83% market Marathon Bet
    1.20 +
  • Liverpool or Manchester City (double chance) 81% market 1xBet
    1.31 +
  • Liverpool over 0.5 goals 81% market Bet365
    1.25 +
  • Under 4 goals 81% market Pinnacle
    1.29 +
  • Over 0.5 first half goals 80% market Marathon Bet
    1.31 +
  • Under 2.5 second half goals 80% market Bet365
    1.28 +
  • Manchester City under 2.5 goals 80% market Bet365
    1.25 +
  • Over 2 goals 80% market Marathon Bet
    1.25 +
  • Liverpool under 2 goals 80% market Marathon Bet
    1.25 +
  • Over 1 second half goals 78% market Marathon Bet
    1.28 +
  • Manchester City over 1 goals 76% market Marathon Bet
    1.31 +
  • Manchester City or Draw (double chance) 74% market 1xBet
    1.42 +
FBB Pro

The daily sheet: every leg, with its chance of landing

Every leg on the card ranked by how likely it is to land, the accas built from that list, the facts behind each leg, and the calls the desk refused, with the reason. Locked before kick-off, graded in public, wins and losses alike.

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Cancel any time. 18+. This is analysis and opinion, not betting advice.