Lens crestToulouse crest

Lens v Toulouse bet builder

Saturday 21 November 2026, 19:45 · Ligue 1

A research tool, not a bookmaker, we build the picks, you place them with your own bookie. We don't take bets. 18+

The model's build

On the record

  • Lens or draw

    77% the model

    Record this market has landed 82% across 332 graded picks

    Our board prices this at 77%, the same number shown on the homepage and previews. (API-Football's own model has it at 90%.)

    1.30 +

  • Over 2.5 Goals

    80%+ the model

    Record this market has landed 64% across 120 graded picks

    Goals: the sides' goal rates read 2.50 and 2.50, so Over 2.5 Goals at 80%+.

    1.14 +
Combined fair odds2 legs, 67% chance all land
1.49

The model puts this 2-leg build at 67% combined for Lens v Toulouse. Legs from one game move together, so read the combined figure as a guide. Every published call is graded in public.

Alternative picks

  • Over 1.5 Goals 78% 1.19 +
  • Under 4.5 Goals 77% 1.22 +
  • Under 3.5 Goals 62% 1.51 +
  • Toulouse or Draw Double Chance 51% 2.03 +

More to build with

Extra markets · not tracked

Player form

Projected from club-season form, informational, not part of our verified record. Build your own bet.

  • J. Russell-Rowe Toulouse
    Shots on target 1+

    J. Russell-Rowe: 1.22 shots on target a game over 9 games, away against a side conceding 4.5 a game

  • T. Jørgensen Toulouse
    Shots on target 1+

    T. Jørgensen: 0.89 shots on target a game over 9 games, away against a side conceding 4.5 a game

  • I. Ganiou Lens
    Shots on target 1+

    I. Ganiou: 0.40 shots on target a game over 5 games, home against a side conceding 4.5 a game

Projections from club-season form only. We never record or grade player markets. They sit outside our verified record by design. 18+ · BeGambleAware.

Match stats

Projected from each side's real season averages, and priced by us rather than taken from a bookmaker. These sit outside the tracked record, so build your own bet from them.

  • Over 9.5 Match Corners 47%
    Corners: Lens avg 6.7 for/4.3 against, Toulouse avg 3.9 for/4.0 against so expected 9.4 match corners
  • Over 7.5 Match Corners 72%
    Corners: Lens avg 6.7 for/4.3 against, Toulouse avg 3.9 for/4.0 against so expected 9.4 match corners; the safer line
  • Over 4.5 Match Cards 42%
    Cards: Lens avg 2.4/game, Toulouse avg 1.9/game so expected 4.2 match cards
  • Over 2.5 Match Cards 79%
    Cards: Lens avg 2.4/game, Toulouse avg 1.9/game so expected 4.2 match cards; the safer line
  • Over 24.5 Match Fouls 61%
    Fouls: Lens avg 12.5/game, Toulouse avg 13.6/game so expected 26.1 match fouls
  • Over 20.5 Match Fouls 80%+
    Fouls: Lens avg 12.5/game, Toulouse avg 13.6/game so expected 26.1 match fouls; the safer line
  • Over 26.5 Match Shots 68%
    Shots: Lens avg 16.4/game, Toulouse avg 12.7/game so expected 29.1 match shots
  • Over 22.5 Match Shots 80%+
    Shots: Lens avg 16.4/game, Toulouse avg 12.7/game so expected 29.1 match shots; the safer line

How this is built

The model prices every fixture before kick-off. This build is its strongest team-market legs for this game: the result, goals, both teams to score. The number beside a leg is the model's own chance; the price is the fair price at that chance. Player legs are information, never part of the record. This league is on the record: every published call here is graded in public.

The record The match page

The market's own prices

Bookmaker prices with the margin still in. These are the market's numbers, not the model's, and no record of ours stands behind them. A price at 65% still fails about one time in three.

Market singles

  • Lens or Draw (double chance) 83% market William Hill
    1.25 +
  • Under 4 goals 83% market 1xBet
    1.24 +
  • Under 2 first half goals 83% market Marathon Bet
    1.20 +
  • Lens over 1 goals 83% market Marathon Bet
    1.20 +
  • Lens or Toulouse (double chance) 81% market William Hill
    1.25 +
  • Under 2.5 second half goals 80% market William Hill
    1.25 +
  • Over 2 goals 79% market 1xBet
    1.30 +
  • Over 0.5 first half goals 79% market William Hill
    1.29 +
  • Over 1 second half goals 78% market Marathon Bet
    1.29 +
  • Toulouse over 0.5 goals 76% market Bet365
    1.40 +
  • Lens under 2.5 goals 75% market Bet365
    1.36 +
  • Toulouse under 1.5 goals 72% market Bet365
    1.40 +

More fixtures

All previews ›
Ligue 1 Toulouse crestStrasbourg crestToulouse vs Strasbourg Fri 6 Nov, 19:45 Ligue 1 Auxerre crestParis FC crestAuxerre vs Paris FC Sat 7 Nov, 18:00 Ligue 1 Paris Saint Germain crestEstac Troyes crestParis Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes Sat 7 Nov, 20:05 Ligue 1 Rennes crestLille crestRennes vs Lille Sun 8 Nov, 14:00 Ligue 1 Le Mans crestMonaco crestLe Mans vs Monaco Sun 8 Nov, 16:15 Ligue 1 Angers crestNice crestAngers vs Nice Sun 8 Nov, 16:15
Pro

The singles we'd pick ourselves, with the research and the price behind each one

  • The daily singles. Each one cleared three checks: the line landed in at least 9 of the two sides' last 12 games, a UK price of 1.35 or more, and our model's number clears what the price needs. Usually 0 to 5 a day, one unit each.
  • The case for each, put together. The last 12 against what the price needs, who is missing, the head to head, and the best price at a UK bookmaker, in one place.
  • The desk's card on every fixture it covers. Its verdict, every market graded, and the reason written down. And tomorrow's singles the night before.

Every pick published before kick-off, graded in public. The losing ones stay on the page.

Seven days for £1 then £9.99 a month, or £79.99 a year. Cancel any time.
18+. BeGambleAware.org. Analysis and opinion, not betting advice.