Le Mans crestLille crest

Le Mans v Lille bet builder

Saturday 28 November 2026, 19:45 · Ligue 1

A research tool, not a bookmaker, we build the picks, you place them with your own bookie. We don't take bets. 18+

The model's build

On the record

  • Lille or Draw

    77% the model

    Record this market has landed 92% across 13 graded picks

    Win if away team wins or draws. Away team favoured. Away avoid defeat 90% of games.

    1.31 +

  • Over 1.5 Goals

    75% the model

    Record this market has landed 79% across 475 graded picks

    Avg 2.6 goals/game expected. Over 1.5 highly likely in high-scoring fixture.

    1.34 +
Combined fair odds2 legs, 57% chance all land
1.75

The model puts this 2-leg build at 57% combined for Le Mans v Lille. Legs from one game move together, so read the combined figure as a guide. Every published call is graded in public.

Alternative picks

  • Under 3.5 Goals 67% 1.38 +
  • Lille Away Win 53% 1.78 +

More to build with

Extra markets · not tracked

Player form

Projected from club-season form, informational, not part of our verified record. Build your own bet.

  • L. Mafouta Le Mans
    Shots on target 1+

    L. Mafouta: 1.10 shots on target a game over 10 games, home against a side conceding 4.5 a game

  • E. Mbappé Lille
    Shots on target 1+

    E. Mbappé: 1.00 shots on target a game over 9 games, away against a side conceding 4.5 a game

  • Tiago Santos Lille
    Shots on target 1+

    Tiago Santos: 1.00 shots on target a game over 6 games, away against a side conceding 4.5 a game

  • L. Calodat Le Mans
    Shots on target 1+

    L. Calodat: 0.50 shots on target a game over 10 games, home against a side conceding 4.5 a game

  • D. Guèye Le Mans
    Shots on target 1+

    D. Guèye: 0.40 shots on target a game over 10 games, home against a side conceding 4.5 a game

Projections from club-season form only. We never record or grade player markets. They sit outside our verified record by design. 18+ · BeGambleAware.

Match stats

Projected from each side's real season averages, and priced by us rather than taken from a bookmaker. These sit outside the tracked record, so build your own bet from them.

  • Over 8.5 Match Corners 31%
    Corners: Le Mans avg 2.8 for/4.5 against, Lille avg 3.0 for/4.4 against so expected 7.3 match corners
  • Over 5.5 Match Corners 74%
    Corners: Le Mans avg 2.8 for/4.5 against, Lille avg 3.0 for/4.4 against so expected 7.3 match corners; the safer line
  • Over 4.5 Match Cards 43%
    Cards: Le Mans avg 2.8/game, Lille avg 1.6/game so expected 4.3 match cards
  • Over 2.5 Match Cards 80%+
    Cards: Le Mans avg 2.8/game, Lille avg 1.6/game so expected 4.3 match cards; the safer line
  • Over 24.5 Match Fouls 51%
    Fouls: Le Mans avg 14.8/game, Lille avg 10.0/game so expected 24.8 match fouls
  • Over 20.5 Match Fouls 80%+
    Fouls: Le Mans avg 14.8/game, Lille avg 10.0/game so expected 24.8 match fouls; the safer line
  • Over 22.5 Match Shots 32%
    Shots: Le Mans avg 9.6/game, Lille avg 10.9/game so expected 20.6 match shots
  • Over 16.5 Match Shots 80%+
    Shots: Le Mans avg 9.6/game, Lille avg 10.9/game so expected 20.6 match shots; the safer line

How this is built

The model prices every fixture before kick-off. This build is its strongest team-market legs for this game: the result, goals, both teams to score. The number beside a leg is the model's own chance; the price is the fair price at that chance. Player legs are information, never part of the record. This league is on the record: every published call here is graded in public.

The record The match page

The market's own prices

Bookmaker prices with the margin still in. These are the market's numbers, not the model's, and no record of ours stands behind them. A price at 65% still fails about one time in three.

Market singles

  • Under 2.5 second half goals 84% market Marathon Bet
    1.19 +
  • Over 0.5 second half goals 84% market Marathon Bet
    1.19 +
  • Over 1.5 goals 82% market Bet365
    1.25 +
  • Lille or Draw (double chance) 81% market Marathon Bet
    1.23 +
  • Lille over 1 goals 81% market Marathon Bet
    1.24 +
  • Le Mans or Lille (double chance) 78% market Marathon Bet
    1.28 +
  • Lille under 2.5 goals 77% market Marathon Bet
    1.30 +
  • Over 0.5 first half goals 75% market Marathon Bet
    1.33 +
  • Under 3.5 goals 75% market Bet365
    1.40 +
  • Le Mans under 1.5 goals 74% market Marathon Bet
    1.35 +
  • Le Mans over 0.5 goals 70% market 1xBet
    1.45 +
  • Under 1.5 first half goals 69% market Marathon Bet
    1.49 +

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Pro

The singles we'd pick ourselves, with the research and the price behind each one

  • The daily singles. Each one cleared three checks: the line landed in at least 9 of the two sides' last 12 games, a UK price of 1.35 or more, and our model's number clears what the price needs. Usually 0 to 5 a day, one unit each.
  • The case for each, put together. The last 12 against what the price needs, who is missing, the head to head, and the best price at a UK bookmaker, in one place.
  • The desk's card on every fixture it covers. Its verdict, every market graded, and the reason written down. And tomorrow's singles the night before.

Every pick published before kick-off, graded in public. The losing ones stay on the page.

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18+. BeGambleAware.org. Analysis and opinion, not betting advice.