Espanyol v Atletico Madrid bet builder

Saturday 17 October 2026, 13:00 · La Liga

A research tool, not a bookmaker, we build the picks, you place them with your own bookie. We don't take bets. 18+

The model's build

On the record

  • Atletico Madrid or draw

    80%+ the model

    Record this market has landed 92% across 13 graded picks

    Our board prices this at 80%, the same number shown on the homepage and previews. (API-Football's own model has it at 90%.)

    1.26 +

  • Over 2.5 Goals

    80%+ the model

    Record this market has landed 64% across 116 graded picks

    Goals: the sides' goal rates read 2.50 and 3.50, so Over 2.5 Goals at 80%+.

    1.07 +
Combined fair odds2 legs, 75% chance all land
1.34

The model puts this 2-leg build at 75% combined for Espanyol v Atletico Madrid. Legs from one game move together, so read the combined figure as a guide. Every published call is graded in public.

Alternative picks

  • Over 1.5 Goals 76% 1.24 +
  • Under 3.5 Goals 66% 1.38 +
  • Atletico Madrid Away Win 56% 1.84 +
  • Espanyol or Draw Double Chance 52% 1.96 +

More to build with

Extra markets · not tracked

Match stats

Projected from each side's real season averages, and priced by us rather than taken from a bookmaker. These sit outside the tracked record, so build your own bet from them.

  • Over 8.5 Match Corners 45%
    Corners: Espanyol avg 2.4 for/5.2 against, Atletico Madrid avg 4.6 for/4.4 against so expected 8.3 match corners
  • Over 6.5 Match Corners 72%
    Corners: Espanyol avg 2.4 for/5.2 against, Atletico Madrid avg 4.6 for/4.4 against so expected 8.3 match corners; the safer line
  • Over 4.5 Match Cards 50%
    Cards: Espanyol avg 2.9/game, Atletico Madrid avg 1.8/game so expected 4.7 match cards
  • Over 2.5 Match Cards 80%+
    Cards: Espanyol avg 2.9/game, Atletico Madrid avg 1.8/game so expected 4.7 match cards; the safer line
  • Over 24.5 Match Fouls 51%
    Fouls: Espanyol avg 14.6/game, Atletico Madrid avg 10.2/game so expected 24.8 match fouls
  • Over 20.5 Match Fouls 80%+
    Fouls: Espanyol avg 14.6/game, Atletico Madrid avg 10.2/game so expected 24.8 match fouls; the safer line
  • Over 24.5 Match Shots 43%
    Shots: Espanyol avg 10.6/game, Atletico Madrid avg 13.3/game so expected 23.8 match shots
  • Over 20.5 Match Shots 75%
    Shots: Espanyol avg 10.6/game, Atletico Madrid avg 13.3/game so expected 23.8 match shots; the safer line

How this is built

The model prices every fixture before kick-off. This build is its strongest team-market legs for this game: the result, goals, both teams to score. The number beside a leg is the model's own chance; the price is the fair price at that chance. Player legs are information, never part of the record. This league is on the record: every published call here is graded in public.

The record The match page

The market's own prices

Bookmaker prices with the margin still in. These are the market's numbers, not the model's, and no record of ours stands behind them. A price at 65% still fails about one time in three.

Market singles

  • Atletico Madrid or Draw (double chance) 85% market William Hill
    1.22 +
  • Under 2.5 second half goals 83% market William Hill
    1.20 +
  • Over 0.5 second half goals 83% market William Hill
    1.22 +
  • Espanyol or Atletico Madrid (double chance) 81% market William Hill
    1.29 +
  • Over 1.5 goals 81% market Bet365
    1.25 +
  • Atletico Madrid under 2.5 goals 79% market Bet365
    1.28 +
  • Atletico Madrid over 1 goals 79% market Marathon Bet
    1.28 +
  • Espanyol under 1.5 goals 76% market Bet365
    1.33 +
  • Over 0.5 first half goals 75% market William Hill
    1.33 +
  • Under 3.5 goals 74% market Bet365
    1.40 +
  • Espanyol over 0.5 goals 70% market Bet365
    1.44 +
  • Under 1.5 first half goals 69% market William Hill
    1.44 +

More fixtures

All previews ›
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Pro

The singles we'd pick ourselves, with the research and the price behind each one

  • The daily singles. Each one cleared three checks: the line landed in at least 9 of the two sides' last 12 games, a UK price of 1.35 or more, and our model's number clears what the price needs. Usually 0 to 5 a day, one unit each.
  • The case for each, put together. The last 12 against what the price needs, who is missing, the head to head, and the best price at a UK bookmaker, in one place.
  • The desk's card on every fixture it covers. Its verdict, every market graded, and the reason written down. And tomorrow's singles the night before.

Every pick published before kick-off, graded in public. The losing ones stay on the page.

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18+. BeGambleAware.org. Analysis and opinion, not betting advice.