Casa Pia crestSporting CP crest

Casa Pia v Sporting CP bet builder

Friday 30 October 2026, 20:15 · Primeira Liga

A research tool, not a bookmaker, we build the picks, you place them with your own bookie. We don't take bets. 18+

The model's build

No record in this league yet, the market's prices only

  • Sporting CP to win

    71% the model

    Our board prices this at 71%, the same number shown on the homepage and previews. (API-Football's own model has it at 50%.)

    1.42 +

  • Over 2.5 Goals

    80%+ the model

    Goals: the sides' goal rates read 1.50 and 5.50, so Over 2.5 Goals at 80%+.

    1.03 +
Combined fair odds2 legs, 68% chance all land
1.46

Built from the bookmakers' prices for Casa Pia v Sporting CP, 68% combined. Legs from one game move together, so read it as a guide.

Alternative picks

  • Under 4.5 Goals 76% 1.25 +
  • Sporting CP (first half) First Half 61% 1.66 +
  • Under 3.5 Goals 60% 1.59 +

More to build with

Extra markets · not tracked

Player form

Projected from club-season form, informational, not part of our verified record. Build your own bet.

  • L. Suárez Sporting CP
    Shots on target 1+

    L. Suárez: 1.13 shots on target a game over 8 games [WC form: 0.00/90 over 2 games (110 min), 21% weight

  • Flávio Gonçalves Sporting CP
    Shots on target 1+

    Flávio Gonçalves: 0.86 shots on target a game over 7 games, away against a side conceding 4.5 a game

  • Geny Catamo Sporting CP
    Shots on target 1+

    Geny Catamo: 0.63 shots on target a game over 8 games, away against a side conceding 4.5 a game

  • M. Araújo Sporting CP
    Shots on target 1+

    M. Araújo: 0.43 shots on target a game over 7 games [WC form: 1.05/90 over 2 games (171 min), 29% weight

  • R. Zalazar Sporting CP
    Shots on target 1+

    R. Zalazar: 0.50 shots on target a game over 8 games, away against a side conceding 4.5 a game

Projections from club-season form only. We never record or grade player markets. They sit outside our verified record by design. 18+ · BeGambleAware.

Match stats

Projected from each side's real season averages, and priced by us rather than taken from a bookmaker. These sit outside the tracked record, so build your own bet from them.

  • Over 8.5 Match Corners 45%
    Corners: Casa Pia avg 3.7 for/5.1 against, Sporting CP avg 3.7 for/4.1 against so expected 8.3 match corners
  • Over 5.5 Match Corners 80%+
    Corners: Casa Pia avg 3.7 for/5.1 against, Sporting CP avg 3.7 for/4.1 against so expected 8.3 match corners; the safer line
  • Over 4.5 Match Cards 43%
    Cards: Casa Pia avg 2.3/game, Sporting CP avg 2.0/game so expected 4.3 match cards
  • Over 2.5 Match Cards 80%+
    Cards: Casa Pia avg 2.3/game, Sporting CP avg 2.0/game so expected 4.3 match cards; the safer line
  • Over 24.5 Match Fouls 56%
    Fouls: Casa Pia avg 13.9/game, Sporting CP avg 11.5/game so expected 25.4 match fouls
  • Over 20.5 Match Fouls 80%+
    Fouls: Casa Pia avg 13.9/game, Sporting CP avg 11.5/game so expected 25.4 match fouls; the safer line
  • Over 22.5 Match Shots 46%
    Shots: Casa Pia avg 8.9/game, Sporting CP avg 13.3/game so expected 22.2 match shots
  • Over 18.5 Match Shots 78%
    Shots: Casa Pia avg 8.9/game, Sporting CP avg 13.3/game so expected 22.2 match shots; the safer line

How this is built

The model prices every fixture before kick-off. This build is its strongest team-market legs for this game: the result, goals, both teams to score. The number beside a leg is the model's own chance; the price is the fair price at that chance. Player legs are information, never part of the record. This league is not on the record yet, so these legs are the model's read of the market, not a graded call.

The record The match page

The market's own prices

Bookmaker prices with the margin still in. These are the market's numbers, not the model's, and no record of ours stands behind them. A price at 65% still fails about one time in three.

Market singles

  • Over 2 goals 84% market 1xBet
    1.23 +
  • Under 2 first half goals 83% market Marathon Bet
    1.21 +
  • Sporting CP to win 82% market William Hill
    1.22 +
  • Sporting CP under 3.5 goals 82% market BetVictor
    1.22 +
  • Over 1 second half goals 81% market Marathon Bet
    1.23 +
  • Over 0.5 first half goals 81% market William Hill
    1.25 +
  • Under 2.5 second half goals 80% market William Hill
    1.25 +
  • Casa Pia under 1 goals 80% market Marathon Bet
    1.26 +
  • Under 4 goals 78% market 1xBet
    1.34 +
  • Sporting CP over 1.5 goals 78% market BetVictor
    1.30 +
  • Sporting CP to win the second half 68% market William Hill
    1.55 +

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Pro

The singles we'd pick ourselves, with the research and the price behind each one

  • The daily singles. Each one cleared three checks: the line landed in at least 9 of the two sides' last 12 games, a UK price of 1.35 or more, and our model's number clears what the price needs. Usually 0 to 5 a day, one unit each.
  • The case for each, put together. The last 12 against what the price needs, who is missing, the head to head, and the best price at a UK bookmaker, in one place.
  • The desk's card on every fixture it covers. Its verdict, every market graded, and the reason written down. And tomorrow's singles the night before.

Every pick published before kick-off, graded in public. The losing ones stay on the page.

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18+. BeGambleAware.org. Analysis and opinion, not betting advice.