Bournemouth crestAston Villa crest

Bournemouth v Aston Villa bet builder

Wednesday 28 October 2026, 19:45 · EFL Cup

A research tool, not a bookmaker, we build the picks, you place them with your own bookie. We don't take bets. 18+

The model's build

No record in this league yet, the market's prices only

  • Bournemouth or draw

    70% the model

    The pre-match read for this game is double chance, Bournemouth or draw (70%). Double chance is our strongest verified market.

    1.43 +

  • Over 2.5 Goals

    80%+ the model

    Goals: the sides' goal rates read 4.50 and 3.50, so Over 2.5 Goals at 80%+.

    1.01 +
Combined fair odds2 legs, 69% chance all land
1.45

Built from the bookmakers' prices for Bournemouth v Aston Villa, 69% combined. Legs from one game move together, so read it as a guide.

Alternative picks

  • Over 1.5 Goals 75% 1.23 +
  • Under 3.5 Goals 66% 1.37 +
  • Aston Villa or Draw Double Chance 62% 1.57 +

How this is built

The model prices every fixture before kick-off. This build is its strongest team-market legs for this game: the result, goals, both teams to score. The number beside a leg is the model's own chance; the price is the fair price at that chance. Player legs are information, never part of the record. This league is not on the record yet, so these legs are the model's read of the market, not a graded call.

The record The match page

The market's own prices

Bookmaker prices with the margin still in. These are the market's numbers, not the model's, and no record of ours stands behind them. A price at 65% still fails about one time in three.

Market singles

  • Under 4 goals 85% market 1xBet
    1.18 +
  • Over 0.5 second half goals 83% market 1xBet
    1.20 +
  • Aston Villa under 2 goals 83% market 1xBet
    1.20 +
  • Over 1.5 goals 82% market Bet365
    1.22 +
  • Bournemouth over 0.5 goals 82% market Bet365
    1.22 +
  • Under 2.5 second half goals 82% market 1xBet
    1.22 +
  • Bournemouth under 2 goals 79% market 1xBet
    1.26 +
  • Bournemouth or Aston Villa (double chance) 78% market Bet365
    1.28 +
  • Aston Villa over 0.5 goals 78% market Bet365
    1.28 +
  • Over 0.5 first half goals 76% market Bet365
    1.33 +
  • Bournemouth or Draw (double chance) 71% market Bet365
    1.40 +
  • Under 1.5 first half goals 69% market Bet365
    1.44 +

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Pro

The singles we'd pick ourselves, with the research and the price behind each one

  • The daily singles. Each one cleared three checks: the line landed in at least 9 of the two sides' last 12 games, a UK price of 1.35 or more, and our model's number clears what the price needs. Usually 0 to 5 a day, one unit each.
  • The case for each, put together. The last 12 against what the price needs, who is missing, the head to head, and the best price at a UK bookmaker, in one place.
  • The desk's card on every fixture it covers. Its verdict, every market graded, and the reason written down. And tomorrow's singles the night before.

Every pick published before kick-off, graded in public. The losing ones stay on the page.

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18+. BeGambleAware.org. Analysis and opinion, not betting advice.