AZ Alkmaar v Groningen bet builder

Sunday 8 November 2026, 15:45 · Eredivisie

A research tool, not a bookmaker, we build the picks, you place them with your own bookie. We don't take bets. 18+

The model's build

No record in this league yet, the market's prices only

AZ Alkmaar or draw

80%+ the model

The pre-match read for this game is double chance, AZ Alkmaar or draw (90%). Double chance is our strongest verified market.

1.11 +
Over 2.5 Goals

80%+ the model

Goals: the sides' goal rates read 2.50 and 3.50, so Over 2.5 Goals at 80%+.

1.07 +

Combined fair odds2 legs, 84% chance all land

1.18

Built from the bookmakers' prices for AZ Alkmaar v Groningen, 84% combined. Legs from one game move together, so read it as a guide.

Alternative picks

Under 4.5 Goals 68% 1.40 +
AZ Alkmaar Home Win 60% 1.54 +
Under 3.5 Goals 54% 1.90 +
AZ Alkmaar (first half) First Half 52% 1.95 +
Over 3.5 Goals 51% 1.89 +

More to build with

Extra markets · not tracked

Player form

Projected from club-season form, informational, not part of our verified record. Build your own bet.

T. van Bergen Groningen

Shots on target 1+

T. van Bergen: 1.60 shots on target a game over 10 games, away against a side conceding 4.5 a game
B. Willumsson Groningen

Shots on target 1+

B. Willumsson: 1.40 shots on target a game over 10 games, away against a side conceding 4.5 a game
B. Willumsson Groningen

Anytime scorer

B. Willumsson: 0.80 goals a game over 10 games, away against a side conceding 2.20 a game
T. van Bergen Groningen

Anytime scorer

T. van Bergen: 0.60 goals a game over 10 games, away against a side conceding 2.20 a game
D. van der Werff Groningen

Shots on target 1+

D. van der Werff: 0.70 shots on target a game over 10 games, away against a side conceding 4.5 a game
T. van Bergen Groningen

Shots on target 2+

T. van Bergen: 1.60 shots on target a game over 10 games, away against a side conceding 4.5 a game
T. de Jonge Groningen

Shots on target 1+

T. de Jonge: 0.50 shots on target a game over 10 games, away against a side conceding 4.5 a game
B. Willumsson Groningen

Shots on target 2+

B. Willumsson: 1.40 shots on target a game over 10 games, away against a side conceding 4.5 a game

Projections from club-season form only. We never record or grade player markets. They sit outside our verified record by design. 18+ · BeGambleAware.

Match stats

Projected from each side's real season averages, and priced by us rather than taken from a bookmaker. These sit outside the tracked record, so build your own bet from them.

Over 10.5 Match Corners 51%
Corners: AZ Alkmaar avg 7.2 for/4.4 against, Groningen avg 4.1 for/5.7 against so expected 10.7 match corners
Over 8.5 Match Corners 74%
Corners: AZ Alkmaar avg 7.2 for/4.4 against, Groningen avg 4.1 for/5.7 against so expected 10.7 match corners; the safer line
Over 3.5 Match Cards 37%
Cards: AZ Alkmaar avg 1.4/game, Groningen avg 1.7/game so expected 3.1 match cards
Over 1.5 Match Cards 80%+
Cards: AZ Alkmaar avg 1.4/game, Groningen avg 1.7/game so expected 3.1 match cards; the safer line
Over 20.5 Match Fouls 53%
Fouls: AZ Alkmaar avg 11.9/game, Groningen avg 9.1/game so expected 21.0 match fouls
Over 16.5 Match Fouls 80%+
Fouls: AZ Alkmaar avg 11.9/game, Groningen avg 9.1/game so expected 21.0 match fouls; the safer line
Over 26.5 Match Shots 80%+
Shots: AZ Alkmaar avg 17.3/game, Groningen avg 15.4/game so expected 32.7 match shots
Over 22.5 Match Shots 80%+
Shots: AZ Alkmaar avg 17.3/game, Groningen avg 15.4/game so expected 32.7 match shots; the safer line

How this is built

The model prices every fixture before kick-off. This build is its strongest team-market legs for this game: the result, goals, both teams to score. The number beside a leg is the model's own chance; the price is the fair price at that chance. Player legs are information, never part of the record. This league is not on the record yet, so these legs are the model's read of the market, not a graded call.

The record The match page

The market's own prices

Bookmaker prices with the margin still in. These are the market's numbers, not the model's, and no record of ours stands behind them. A price at 65% still fails about one time in three.

Market singles

Under 2.5 first half goals 85% market William Hill
1.25 +
AZ Alkmaar under 3.5 goals 84% market Bet365
1.22 +
Over 2.5 goals 77% market Bet365
1.36 +
Groningen over 0.5 goals 77% market Bet365
1.33 +
AZ Alkmaar under 3 goals 76% market 1xBet
1.35 +
Under 4.5 goals 75% market Bet365
1.36 +
Under 2 first half goals 75% market Betano
1.35 +
Under 2.5 second half goals 71% market William Hill
1.40 +
Groningen under 1.5 goals 71% market Bet365
1.44 +
Both teams to score: Yes 71% market William Hill
1.44 +
Over 3 goals 68% market Betano
1.55 +

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Pro

The singles we'd pick ourselves, with the research and the price behind each one

The daily singles. Each one cleared three checks: the line landed in at least 9 of the two sides' last 12 games, a UK price of 1.35 or more, and our model's number clears what the price needs. Usually 0 to 5 a day, one unit each.
The case for each, put together. The last 12 against what the price needs, who is missing, the head to head, and the best price at a UK bookmaker, in one place.
The desk's card on every fixture it covers. Its verdict, every market graded, and the reason written down. And tomorrow's singles the night before.

Every pick published before kick-off, graded in public. The losing ones stay on the page.

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18+. BeGambleAware.org. Analysis and opinion, not betting advice.