Arouca v Nacional bet builder
A research tool, not a bookmaker, we build the picks, you place them with your own bookie. We don't take bets. 18+
The model's build
No record in this league yet, the market's prices only-
1.26 +
Arouca or Draw
79% the modelThe outright win sits at only 52%, so we take the safer Double Chance (79%) covering the same side.
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1.14 +
Over 2.5 Goals
80%+ the modelGoals: the sides' goal rates read 3.50 and 1.50, so Over 2.5 Goals at 80%+.
Built from the bookmakers' prices for Arouca v Nacional, 69% combined. Legs from one game move together, so read it as a guide.
Alternative picks
- Over 1.5 Goals 75% 1.25 +
- Under 3.5 Goals 68% 1.36 +
- Arouca Home Win 52% 1.76 +
- Nacional or Draw Double Chance 51% 2.02 +
More to build with
Extra markets · not trackedPlayer form
Projected from club-season form, informational, not part of our verified record. Build your own bet.
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Barbero AroucaShots on target 1+
Barbero: 1.11 shots on target a game over 9 games, home against a side conceding 4.5 a game
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T. Fukui AroucaShots on target 1+
T. Fukui: 0.56 shots on target a game over 9 games, home against a side conceding 4.5 a game
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Miguel Baeza NacionalShots on target 1+
Miguel Baeza: 0.56 shots on target a game over 9 games, away against a side conceding 4.5 a game
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Pablo Ruan NacionalShots on target 1+
Pablo Ruan: 0.50 shots on target a game over 8 games, away against a side conceding 4.5 a game
Projections from club-season form only. We never record or grade player markets. They sit outside our verified record by design. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
How this is built
The model prices every fixture before kick-off. This build is its strongest team-market legs for this game: the result, goals, both teams to score. The number beside a leg is the model's own chance; the price is the fair price at that chance. Player legs are information, never part of the record. This league is not on the record yet, so these legs are the model's read of the market, not a graded call.
The market's own prices
Bookmaker prices with the margin still in. These are the market's numbers, not the model's, and no record of ours stands behind them. A price at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Same-game build one leg a market, live prices
3 legs on this fixture, one a market, priced across the books with the combined return. Built for members. Seven days for £1 opens it.
Market singles
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Under 12 corners 85% market 1xBet1.18 +
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Arouca or Nacional (double chance) 83% market William Hill1.25 +
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Over 1.5 goals 83% market Bet3651.25 +
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Nacional over 2.5 corners 82% market 1xBet1.23 +
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Arouca over 3.5 corners 82% market Betano1.22 +
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Arouca under 7 corners 81% market 1xBet1.23 +
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Under 7.5 cards 81% market Betano1.23 +
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Arouca under 2.5 goals 81% market Bet3651.28 +
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Arouca over 1 goals 81% market Marathon Bet1.24 +
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Over 7.5 corners 81% market Betano1.27 +
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Nacional under 5.5 corners 79% market 1xBet1.26 +
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Over 3.5 cards 79% market Betano1.27 +
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The singles we'd pick ourselves, with the research and the price behind each one
- The daily singles. Each one cleared three checks: the line landed in at least 9 of the two sides' last 12 games, a UK price of 1.35 or more, and our model's number clears what the price needs. Usually 0 to 5 a day, one unit each.
- The case for each, put together. The last 12 against what the price needs, who is missing, the head to head, and the best price at a UK bookmaker, in one place.
- The desk's card on every fixture it covers. Its verdict, every market graded, and the reason written down. And tomorrow's singles the night before.
Every pick published before kick-off, graded in public. The losing ones stay on the page.