Alaves crestMalaga crest

Alaves v Malaga bet builder

Friday 23 October 2026, 20:00 · La Liga

A research tool, not a bookmaker, we build the picks, you place them with your own bookie. We don't take bets. 18+

The model's build

On the record

  • Alaves or draw

    80%+ the model

    Record this market has landed 83% across 274 graded picks

    Our board prices this at 83%, the same number shown on the homepage and previews. (API-Football's own model has it at 90%.)

    1.21 +

  • Over 2.5 Goals

    76% the model

    Record this market has landed 64% across 116 graded picks

    Goals: the sides' goal rates read 2.50 and 1.50, so Over 2.5 Goals at 76%.

    1.31 +
Combined fair odds2 legs, 63% chance all land
1.59

The model puts this 2-leg build at 63% combined for Alaves v Malaga. Legs from one game move together, so read the combined figure as a guide. Every published call is graded in public.

Alternative picks

  • Over 1.5 Goals 74% 1.33 +
  • Under 3.5 Goals 71% 1.27 +
  • Malaga or Draw Double Chance 51% 2.04 +
  • Alaves Home Win 50% 1.77 +

More to build with

Extra markets · not tracked

Player form

Projected from club-season form, informational, not part of our verified record. Build your own bet.

  • L. Boyé Alaves
    Shots on target 1+

    L. Boyé: 1.25 shots on target a game over 8 games, home against a side conceding 4.5 a game

  • Angel Pérez Alaves
    Shots on target 1+

    Angel Pérez: 0.63 shots on target a game over 8 games, home against a side conceding 4.5 a game

  • Chupe Malaga
    Shots on target 1+

    Chupe: 0.67 shots on target a game over 9 games, away against a side conceding 4.5 a game

  • L. Boyé Alaves
    Shots on target 2+

    L. Boyé: 1.25 shots on target a game over 8 games, home against a side conceding 4.5 a game

  • A. Rebbach Alaves
    Shots on target 1+

    A. Rebbach: 0.44 shots on target a game over 9 games, home against a side conceding 4.5 a game

Projections from club-season form only. We never record or grade player markets. They sit outside our verified record by design. 18+ · BeGambleAware.

Match stats

Projected from each side's real season averages, and priced by us rather than taken from a bookmaker. These sit outside the tracked record, so build your own bet from them.

  • Over 9.5 Match Corners 51%
    Corners: Alaves avg 4.1 for/4.4 against, Malaga avg 6.3 for/4.7 against so expected 9.8 match corners
  • Over 7.5 Match Corners 76%
    Corners: Alaves avg 4.1 for/4.4 against, Malaga avg 6.3 for/4.7 against so expected 9.8 match corners; the safer line
  • Over 4.5 Match Cards 43%
    Cards: Alaves avg 1.8/game, Malaga avg 2.5/game so expected 4.3 match cards
  • Over 2.5 Match Cards 80%+
    Cards: Alaves avg 1.8/game, Malaga avg 2.5/game so expected 4.3 match cards; the safer line
  • Over 24.5 Match Fouls 59%
    Fouls: Alaves avg 13.7/game, Malaga avg 12.2/game so expected 25.9 match fouls
  • Over 20.5 Match Fouls 80%+
    Fouls: Alaves avg 13.7/game, Malaga avg 12.2/game so expected 25.9 match fouls; the safer line
  • Over 24.5 Match Shots 45%
    Shots: Alaves avg 12.4/game, Malaga avg 11.7/game so expected 24.1 match shots
  • Over 20.5 Match Shots 76%
    Shots: Alaves avg 12.4/game, Malaga avg 11.7/game so expected 24.1 match shots; the safer line

How this is built

The model prices every fixture before kick-off. This build is its strongest team-market legs for this game: the result, goals, both teams to score. The number beside a leg is the model's own chance; the price is the fair price at that chance. Player legs are information, never part of the record. This league is on the record: every published call here is graded in public.

The record The match page

The market's own prices

Bookmaker prices with the margin still in. These are the market's numbers, not the model's, and no record of ours stands behind them. A price at 65% still fails about one time in three.

Market singles

  • Under 12 corners 84% market 1xBet
    1.19 +
  • Alaves over 3.5 corners 84% market Betano
    1.19 +
  • Malaga under 1.5 goals 83% market Bet365
    1.22 +
  • Alaves or Malaga (double chance) 82% market William Hill
    1.30 +
  • Alaves under 2.5 goals 82% market Bet365
    1.22 +
  • Over 7.5 corners 81% market Betano
    1.27 +
  • Alaves over 4 corners 81% market 1xBet
    1.23 +
  • Malaga under 5.5 corners 81% market Betano
    1.26 +
  • Over 0.5 second half goals 80% market William Hill
    1.29 +
  • Under 2 second half goals 80% market Marathon Bet
    1.25 +
  • Malaga over 2.5 corners 80% market Betano
    1.26 +
  • Under 3.5 goals 79% market Bet365
    1.28 +

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Pro

The singles we'd pick ourselves, with the research and the price behind each one

  • The daily singles. Each one cleared three checks: the line landed in at least 9 of the two sides' last 12 games, a UK price of 1.35 or more, and our model's number clears what the price needs. Usually 0 to 5 a day, one unit each.
  • The case for each, put together. The last 12 against what the price needs, who is missing, the head to head, and the best price at a UK bookmaker, in one place.
  • The desk's card on every fixture it covers. Its verdict, every market graded, and the reason written down. And tomorrow's singles the night before.

Every pick published before kick-off, graded in public. The losing ones stay on the page.

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18+. BeGambleAware.org. Analysis and opinion, not betting advice.