Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both Teams to Score | 46.2% | 55.6% | 9 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 40.8% | 47.6% | 7 pts under |
| Draw | 28.0% | 31.4% | 3 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced — no edge there.
Three points on the line and a story to write — Vitoria host Vasco DA Gama.
Neck and neck in the Brasileirão Série A standings. Vitoria (15th, 45 pts) host Vasco DA Gama (14th, 45 pts) in a contest that promises intensity.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Vitoria will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Vasco DA Gama travel with the same brief — find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Too close to call with any conviction. Vitoria edge it at 45% but a draw (28%) is just as likely. One to tread carefully with. Our most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Vitoria will be looking to make home advantage count (W9 D6 L4 at home). Vasco DA Gama's away record reads W5 D2 L12. The visitors need to start well or this could get away from them.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Vitoria create chances worth 1.2 a game (and give up chances worth 1.1), leaving them +0.1 a game on the balance. Vasco DA Gama create 1.0 (giving up 1.6) for a balance of -0.5. The underlying numbers clearly favour Vitoria. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Vitoria average 0.9 goals per game and Vasco DA Gama manage 1.4. Combined that's just 2.3. We make it only 41% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip — we make it 46%.
Neither side has much to play for in the grand scheme. no European places within reach and relegation isn't a concern. That can make for an unpredictable game with less pressure on both sides.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Vitoria Win | @2.40 | 44.6% | Bet365 |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.20 | 28.0% | Bet365 |
| Match Result | Vasco DA Gama Win | @2.90 | 37.8% | Bet365 |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.80 | 46.2% | Bet365 |
| BTTS | No | @1.95 | 53.8% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @2.10 | 40.8% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.73 | 59.2% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.36 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @3.20 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @4.00 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.25 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Vitoria the favourite with a 44.6% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Vitoria @ 2.40, Draw @ 3.20, Vasco DA Gama @ 2.90. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Vitoria vs Vasco DA Gama kicks off on Thursday 16 July 2026 at 23:30 in the Brasileirão Série A.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 46.2% probability.
Our top prediction is Vitoria to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance — every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.