Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both Teams to Score | 44.5% | 53.5% | 9 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 39.2% | 45.7% | 6 pts under |
| Draw | 27.6% | 31.2% | 4 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced — no edge there.
Three points on the line and a story to write — Mirassol host Gremio.
Mirassol (4th, 67 pts) host Gremio (9th, 49 pts) in the Brasileirão Série A. Both sides will be targeting three points here.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Mirassol will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Gremio travel with the same brief — find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Too close to call with any conviction. Mirassol edge it at 42% but a draw (28%) is just as likely. One to tread carefully with. We're calling it 1-0.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Mirassol's home record this season is formidable. W12 D7 L0 from 19, scoring 2.2 goals per game at home. Gremio, by contrast, have struggled on the road (W4 D5 L10 from 19 away). That imbalance is hard to ignore.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Mirassol create chances worth 1.5 a game (and give up chances worth 1.2), leaving them +0.3 a game on the balance. Gremio create 1.6 (giving up 1.3) for a balance of +0.3. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Mirassol average 1.7 goals per game and Gremio manage 1.2. Combined that's just 2.9. We make it only 39% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip — we make it 45%. Interestingly, the chances suggest more goals than the headline number. Mirassol and Gremio together create chances worth 3.1 a game. The low figure might be underrating the attacking quality here.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Mirassol Win | @2.25 | 41.5% | Bet365 |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.20 | 27.6% | Bet365 |
| Match Result | Gremio Win | @3.10 | 30.8% | Bet365 |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.95 | 44.5% | Bet365 |
| BTTS | No | @1.83 | 55.5% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @2.20 | 39.2% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.68 | 60.8% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.40 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @3.00 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @4.00 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.25 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Mirassol the favourite with a 41.5% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Mirassol @ 2.25, Draw @ 3.20, Gremio @ 3.10. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Mirassol vs Gremio kicks off on Friday 17 July 2026 at 01:30 in the Brasileirão Série A.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 44.5% probability.
Our top prediction is Mirassol to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance — every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.