Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both Teams to Score | 49.3% | 59.2% | 10 pts under |
| Botafogo Win | 47.0% | 52.6% | 6 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 51.0% | 54.3% | 3 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced — no edge there.
Three points on the line and a story to write — Botafogo host Santos.
A Brasileirão Série A meeting between Botafogo (6th, 63 pts) and Santos (12th, 47 pts). Two sides with their own objectives and plenty to play for.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Botafogo will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Santos travel with the same brief — find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
A razor-thin margin: Botafogo at 47%, but the draw sits at 28%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine. Our most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Botafogo will be looking to make home advantage count (W11 D5 L3 at home). Santos's away record reads W4 D5 L10. The visitors need to start well or this could get away from them.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Botafogo create chances worth 1.6 a game (and give up chances worth 1.3), leaving them +0.3 a game on the balance. Santos create 1.3 (giving up 1.3) for a balance of +0.1. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Botafogo are scoring 1.5 a game (2.1 of those at home) and Santos manage 1.2 (1.1 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more — we make it 51% — so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip — we make it 49%.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Botafogo Win | @1.90 | 47.0% | Bet365 |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.25 | 27.5% | Bet365 |
| Match Result | Santos Win | @4.00 | 25.6% | Bet365 |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.75 | 49.3% | Bet365 |
| BTTS | No | @2.05 | 50.7% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.85 | 51.0% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.97 | 49.0% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.28 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @3.75 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @3.20 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.36 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Botafogo the favourite with a 47.0% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Botafogo @ 1.90, Draw @ 3.25, Santos @ 4.00. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Botafogo vs Santos kicks off on Thursday 16 July 2026 at 23:30 in the Brasileirão Série A.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 49.3% probability.
Our top prediction is Botafogo to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance — every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.