Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Djurgardens IF Win | 65.0% | 80.0% | 15 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 65.4% | 69.4% | 4 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced — no edge there.
Djurgardens IF know what's at stake — and so do Halmstads BK.
Djurgardens IF take on Halmstads BK in the Allsvenskan. Let's break down what our data says about this one.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Djurgardens IF will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Halmstads BK travel with the same brief — find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Djurgardens IF shade it at 65%, though Halmstads BK won't be pushovers. If you're building an acca, backing Djurgardens IF with your stake back if it's a draw is the safer option. Our most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Our PickDjurgardens IF to win at @1.29. Model probability 65% vs implied 78% — priced at fair value — take it for stability, not for edge.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Halmstads BK are creating better chances than their goal return suggests (chance quality of 1.5 against 1.0 actual goals). They look due a few more.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Djurgardens IF create chances worth 1.7 a game (and give up chances worth 1.2), leaving them +0.5 a game on the balance. Halmstads BK create 1.5 (giving up 1.3) for a balance of +0.2. The underlying numbers clearly favour Djurgardens IF. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones. Halmstads BK are creating chances worth 1.5 a game but only finishing 1.0. the underlying performance is better than the results show.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Djurgardens IF are scoring 1.7 a game (2.0 of those at home) and Halmstads BK manage 1.0 (1.0 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more — we make it 65% — so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Djurgardens IF Win | @1.29 | 65.0% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @5.00 | 19.8% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Halmstads BK Win | @9.50 | 15.2% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.44 | 65.4% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.50 | 34.6% | William Hill |
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture — our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Our model makes Djurgardens IF the favourite with a 65.0% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Djurgardens IF @ 1.29, Draw @ 5.00, Halmstads BK @ 9.50. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Djurgardens IF vs Halmstads BK kicks off on Monday 13 July 2026 at 18:00 in the Allsvenskan.
Our top prediction is Djurgardens IF to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance — every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.