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U.N.A.M. - Pumas 45%, the draw 27%, Leon 29%. That's the shape of this one.
The bookmakers open U.N.A.M. - Pumas at @1.95 for this Liga MX tie, with Leon out at @3.30.
Juninho has been U.N.A.M. - Pumas's spearhead, with 3 goals and 0 assists in 6 appearances, averaging 0.50 shots on target per game. D. Arcila has been Leon's main threat, with 3 goals and 0 assists in 6 appearances, averaging 1.17 shots on target per game.
U.N.A.M. - Pumas average 0.0 goals per game and Leon manage 1.3. Combined that's just 1.3. Even so, we make it 58% for three or more. The model sees more goals here than the season averages suggest. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 54%.
U.N.A.M. - Pumas do it the hard way: only 0.0 a game up top, but a mean 0.0 conceded. They're a tough nut to crack: they soak up pressure and hit you on the break.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | U.N.A.M. - Pumas Win | @1.95 | 44.5% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.20 | 26.9% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Leon Win | @3.30 | 28.7% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.67 | 53.8% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.00 | 46.2% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.85 | 57.5% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.08 | 42.5% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.25 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @4.20 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @3.25 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.42 | - | Bet365 |
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Our model makes U.N.A.M. - Pumas the favourite with a 44.5% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: U.N.A.M. - Pumas @ 1.95, Draw @ 3.20, Leon @ 3.30. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Leon kicks off on Friday 11 September 2026 at 04:00 in the Liga MX.