03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Torino Win |
15.4% |
22.2% |
7 pts under
|
| Over 2.5 Goals |
51.2% |
47.6% |
4 pts over
|
| Both Teams to Score |
48.1% |
50.0% |
2 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Match Stats
Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
-
Over 8.5 Match Corners
38% (model)
Corners: Torino avg 2.8 for/4.0 against, AS Roma avg 4.6 for/4.3 against → expected 7.8 match corners
-
Over 2.5 Match Cards
41% (model)
Cards: Torino avg 0.6/game, AS Roma avg 1.7/game → expected 2.3 match cards
-
Over 22.5 Match Fouls
45% (model)
Fouls: Torino avg 10.8/game, AS Roma avg 11.3/game → expected 22.1 match fouls
-
Over 24.5 Match Shots
41% (model)
Shots: Torino avg 10.3/game, AS Roma avg 13.2/game → expected 23.5 match shots
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
Key Stats
🎯
Both teams scored in 63% of Torino home games
🔥
AS Roma are on a 5-game winning streak
01The read
Torino Host AS Roma: Our Prediction
The model makes AS Roma 57% favourites here. Torino carry the 15% upset.
AS Roma slight edge (57%) | Predicted: 0-2
Confidence
★★★★★
Tricky away day for AS Roma (1st, 6 pts) as they travel to Torino (14th, 0 pts), but the visitors' league position tells you they should have more than enough here.
Our verdict
AS Roma shade it at 57%, though Torino won't be pushovers. If you're building an acca, backing AS Roma with your stake back if it's a draw is the safer option.
Our pick
Our PickAS Roma to win at @1.70. Model probability 57% vs implied 59%. Priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Key facts
🔥
Creative Force
AS Roma creating chances worth 2.3 a game lately. Plenty of openings even away from home
📉
Home Wobble
Torino arrive off 2 straight defeats. The home crowd will need something early
🔥
Travelling Hot
AS Roma bring a 5-game winning run into this one
▸ Form & goals
AS Roma are no pushovers away from home. W1 D0 L0 from 1 away trips, scoring 4.0 per game on the road. Torino (W0 D0 L1 at home) can't afford to take this lightly. Torino's home form is particularly impressive right now. They're performing above their season average on their own turf. Season-long, AS Roma average 3.0 points per game compared to Torino's 0.0. that gap in consistency is hard to ignore. AS Roma could be in for a similar cool-off. 4.0 goals a game against chance quality worth only 1.7. Hot finishing has been covering for the fact they aren't creating that much. The gap in chance quality is clear: AS Roma come out at +0.8 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to +0.3. that's a real edge in the quality of chances.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Torino create chances worth 1.6 a game (and give up chances worth 1.4), leaving them +0.3 a game on the balance. AS Roma create 1.7 (giving up 0.9) for a balance of +0.8. On the quality of chances, AS Roma look the stronger side. they create more and give up less. AS Roma are also scoring more than their chances suggest (4.0 goals vs chance quality of 1.7). Both runs could cool off at once.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Torino are scoring 1.0 a game (1.0 of those at home) and AS Roma manage 4.0 (4.0 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 51%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 48%. Two or more goals at @1.40 is a steadier alternative for accas.
Both teams score in 63% of Torino's home games and 42% of AS Roma's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
▸ Team news & context
AS Roma are similarly well-balanced. 4.0 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. This has the makings of a tight, tactical game between two organised sides.
In the last 10 meetings: Torino have won 2, AS Roma 6, with 2 draws. These fixtures average 2.4 goals per game. 3 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Torino 0-2 AS Roma, AS Roma 2-3 Torino, AS Roma 0-1 Torino, Torino 0-2 AS Roma.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
Most likely scorelines: 0-2 (12%) and 0-3 (12%).
First Half Result
-
Torino HT
5.50
-
Draw HT
2.10
-
AS Roma HT
2.20
Latest News
Loading latest news...
Team Intel
📊 Torino · xG
For: 1.61/g
Against: 1.36/g
📊 AS Roma · xG
For: 1.68/g
Against: 0.92/g
⚠️ Outscoring xG by 0.42/g, possibly running hot
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Torino vs AS Roma Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Torino Win |
@5.00
|
15.4% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.50
|
25.6% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
AS Roma Win |
@1.70
|
57.0% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@2.05
|
48.1% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@1.73
|
51.9% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@2.20
|
51.2% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@1.76
|
48.8% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.40
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@3.05
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@4.00
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.25
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Torino vs AS Roma Team Stats
Torino FC
Position
14
Played
2
Record
0W-0D-2L
Goals F/A
2/4
Avg Goals Scored
1.00
Overall Form
LLDLW
Home Form
LDWD
Home Record
0W-0D-1L
AS Roma
Position
1
Played
2
Record
2W-0D-0L
Goals F/A
8/0
Avg Goals Scored
4.00
Points
6
Overall Form
WWWWW
Away Form
WWWW
Away Record
1W-0D-0L
Torino vs AS Roma Head to Head
2 Home Wins
2 Draws
6 Away Wins
2.4
Avg Goals
4/10
BTTS
3/10
Over 2.5
2026-01-18
Torino 0-2 AS Roma
2026-01-13
Torino 3-2 AS Roma
2025-09-14
Torino 1-0 AS Roma
2025-05-25
Torino 0-2 AS Roma
2024-10-31
Torino 0-1 AS Roma
2024-02-26
Torino 2-3 AS Roma
2023-09-24
Torino 1-1 AS Roma
2023-04-08
Torino 0-1 AS Roma
2022-11-13
Torino 1-1 AS Roma
2022-05-20
Torino 0-3 AS Roma
Full Torino vs AS Roma head-to-head history →
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
0-2
11.8%
0-3
11.8%
0-4
8.8%
0-1
7.8%
1-2
7.6%
1-3
7.6%
1-4
5.7%
0-5
5.3%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
AS Roma under 2.5 goals
83%
@1.22
Marathon Bet
-
Under 3.5 goals
83%
@1.25
Bet365
-
Under 2 second half goals
83%
@1.21
Marathon Bet
-
Over 6.5 corners
82%
@1.22
Unibet
-
Under 11.5 corners
81%
@1.23
Unibet
-
Torino or AS Roma (double chance)
80%
@1.32
1xBet
-
Over 0.5 second half goals
79%
@1.30
10Bet
-
AS Roma over 3.5 corners
78%
@1.29
Unibet
-
Under 3 goals
77%
@1.36
Betano
-
Under 1.5 first half goals
75%
@1.35
10Bet
-
AS Roma over 1 goals
75%
@1.36
1xBet
-
Torino under 1 goals
73%
@1.40
1xBet
Build a slip from these markets →