Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both Teams to Score | 58.0% | 69.4% | 11 pts under |
| Viking Win | 52.8% | 57.8% | 5 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 65.0% | 69.0% | 4 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced — no edge there.
All eyes on Sarpsborg 08 FF as Viking travel to face Sarpsborg 08 FF.
A Eliteserien meeting between Sarpsborg 08 FF (9th, 41 pts) and Viking (1st, 71 pts). Two sides with their own objectives and plenty to play for.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Sarpsborg 08 FF will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Viking travel with the same brief — find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Too close to call with any conviction. Viking edge it at 53% but a draw (25%) is just as likely. One to tread carefully with. Predicted scoreline: 1-2.
Our PickThree or more goals at @1.50. Model probability 65% vs implied 67% — priced at fair value — take it for stability, not for edge.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Sarpsborg 08 FF create chances worth 1.7 a game (and give up chances worth 2.4), leaving them -0.8 a game on the balance. Viking create 1.8 (giving up 1.1) for a balance of +0.7. On the quality of chances, Viking look the stronger side. they create more and give up less. A worry for Sarpsborg 08 FF: the chances they're creating lately are worth 1.2 a game, well below their 1.7 season figure. The attacking output has dipped.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Sarpsborg 08 FF average 1.6 goals per game and Viking manage 0.0. Combined that's just 1.6. We make it only 65% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip — we make it 58%. The chance-quality data backs the goals case. Sarpsborg 08 FF create chances worth 1.7 a game and Viking 1.8. Combined, that's 3.5 a game from open play alone.
Viking prefer to keep things tight (0.0 conceded per game) and nick a goal on the break. Patience will be key for Sarpsborg 08 FF against this setup.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Sarpsborg 08 FF Win | @3.80 | 22.1% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.75 | 25.1% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Viking Win | @1.75 | 52.8% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.44 | 58.0% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.50 | 42.0% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.50 | 65.0% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.56 | 35.0% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.14 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @5.50 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.20 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.66 | - | Bet365 |
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture — our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Our model makes Viking the favourite with a 52.8% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF @ 3.80, Draw @ 3.75, Viking @ 1.75. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Viking kicks off on Sunday 12 July 2026 at 18:15 in the Eliteserien.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 58.0% probability.
Our top prediction is Viking to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance — every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.