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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose Earthquakes Win | 61.6% | 71.4% | 10 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 73.3% | 79.4% | 6 pts under |
| Both Teams to Score | 69.1% | 72.5% | 3 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
San Jose Earthquakes know what's at stake, and so do Orlando City SC.
San Jose Earthquakes welcome Orlando City SC in the MLS. We've crunched the numbers. Here's our preview.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. San Jose Earthquakes will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Orlando City SC travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
We lean towards San Jose Earthquakes at 62%. The edge is there but not overwhelming, so a stake-back-on-a-draw option is worth a thought for an acca.
Our PickSan Jose Earthquakes to win at @1.44. Model probability 62% vs implied 69%. priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
This league is new to our model. We have not yet built a verified record here, so treat this as an early read while we track it.
San Jose Earthquakes will be looking to make home advantage count (W5 D6 L6 at home). Orlando City SC's away record reads W6 D7 L5. The visitors need to start well or this could get away from them. A concern for Orlando City SC: they're giving up chances worth 2.4 a game over their last 5 (vs 2.0 for the season). The defence is creaking.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
San Jose Earthquakes create chances worth 1.8 a game (and give up chances worth 1.5), leaving them +0.3 a game on the balance. Orlando City SC create 1.8 (giving up 2.0) for a balance of -0.2. The underlying numbers clearly favour San Jose Earthquakes. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones. Orlando City SC's defence is giving up chances. Worth 2.4 a game over their last 5 vs 2.0 for the season. They're becoming easier to break down.
Goals look likely here. San Jose Earthquakes average 1.8 per game (2.2 at home) and Orlando City SC chip in with 1.8 (1.6 away). Defensively, San Jose Earthquakes concede 1.9 at home and Orlando City SC leak 1.6 on the road. We make it 73% for three or more goals. One of the stronger cases for goals today. There's a good chance both teams find the net, and we make it 69%. San Jose Earthquakes score in 94% of their games and Orlando City SC in 89%, and neither back line is tight enough to bank on a clean sheet. The chance-quality data backs the goals case. San Jose Earthquakes create chances worth 1.8 a game and Orlando City SC 1.8. Combined, that's 3.5 a game from open play alone.
San Jose Earthquakes are all-out attack: 1.8 goals a game, but they leak 1.9 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Orlando City SC, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at. Orlando City SC have goals in them (1.8 per game) but their record at the back (1.5 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | San Jose Earthquakes Win | @1.44 | 61.6% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @4.60 | 19.7% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Orlando City SC Win | @5.80 | 18.6% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.40 | 69.1% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.70 | 30.9% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.30 | 73.3% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @3.65 | 26.7% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.08 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @8.00 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @1.73 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @2.10 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes San Jose Earthquakes the favourite with a 61.6% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: San Jose Earthquakes @ 1.44, Draw @ 4.60, Orlando City SC @ 5.80. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
San Jose Earthquakes vs Orlando City SC kicks off on Thursday 23 July 2026 at 03:30 in the MLS.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 69.1% probability.
Our top prediction is San Jose Earthquakes to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.