Get the model's verified verdict on Charlotte (and any team you follow) emailed the moment odds drop. Free, no spam, one-click unsubscribe.
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both Teams to Score | 51.5% | 61.7% | 10 pts under |
| Charlotte Win | 54.0% | 61.7% | 8 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 58.8% | 61.3% | 3 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Three points on the line and a story to write. Charlotte host Atlanta United FC.
A MLS fixture between Charlotte and Atlanta United FC. Here's what the numbers and form tell us ahead of kick-off.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Charlotte will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Atlanta United FC travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
A razor-thin margin: Charlotte at 54%, but the draw sits at 23%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Charlotte average 0.0 goals per game and Atlanta United FC manage 1.1. Combined that's just 1.1. We make it only 59% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 52%.
Charlotte do it the hard way: only 0.0 a game up top, but a mean 0.0 conceded. They're a tough nut to crack: they soak up pressure and hit you on the break. Neither defence inspires confidence. Both sides rarely keep clean sheets. Open, attacking football is on the cards.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Charlotte Win | @1.67 | 54.0% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.75 | 23.2% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Atlanta United FC Win | @4.50 | 22.8% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.65 | 51.5% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.15 | 48.5% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.67 | 58.8% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.22 | 41.2% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.20 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @4.50 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.62 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.50 | - | Bet365 |
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Our model makes Charlotte the favourite with a 54.0% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Charlotte @ 1.67, Draw @ 3.75, Atlanta United FC @ 4.50. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Charlotte vs Atlanta United FC kicks off on Thursday 23 July 2026 at 01:15 in the MLS.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 51.5% probability.
Our top prediction is Charlotte to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.