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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both Teams to Score | 50.5% | 60.6% | 10 pts under |
| New England Revolution Win | 52.6% | 58.8% | 6 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 54.8% | 58.8% | 4 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
New England Revolution are flying. Toronto FC arrive in their path.
New England Revolution take on Toronto FC in the MLS. Let's break down what our data says about this one.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. New England Revolution will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Toronto FC travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
A razor-thin margin: New England Revolution at 53%, but the draw sits at 22%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
New England Revolution will be looking to make home advantage count (W4 D4 L9 at home). Toronto FC's away record reads W3 D7 L7. The visitors need to start well or this could get away from them. New England Revolution's home form is particularly impressive right now. They're performing above their season average on their own turf. A concern for Toronto FC: they're giving up chances worth 1.8 a game over their last 5 (vs 1.4 for the season). The defence is creaking.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
New England Revolution create chances worth 1.2 a game (and give up chances worth 1.4), leaving them -0.2 a game on the balance. Toronto FC create 1.1 (giving up 1.4) for a balance of -0.4. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath. A worry for New England Revolution: the chances they're creating lately are worth 0.8 a game, well below their 1.2 season figure. The attacking output has dipped. Toronto FC's defence is giving up chances. Worth 1.8 a game over their last 5 vs 1.4 for the season. They're becoming easier to break down.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. New England Revolution average 1.3 goals per game and Toronto FC manage 1.1. Combined that's just 2.4. We make it only 55% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 51%.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | New England Revolution Win | @1.73 | 52.6% | Bet365 |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.70 | 21.7% | Bet365 |
| Match Result | Toronto FC Win | @4.50 | 23.8% | Bet365 |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.70 | 50.5% | Bet365 |
| BTTS | No | @2.12 | 49.5% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.73 | 54.8% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.12 | 45.2% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.22 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @4.10 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.75 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.45 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes New England Revolution the favourite with a 52.6% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: New England Revolution @ 1.73, Draw @ 3.70, Toronto FC @ 4.50. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
New England Revolution vs Toronto FC kicks off on Thursday 23 July 2026 at 00:30 in the MLS.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 50.5% probability.
Our top prediction is New England Revolution to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.