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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both Teams to Score | 53.8% | 64.5% | 11 pts under |
| Columbus Crew Win | 46.2% | 52.4% | 6 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 58.8% | 61.3% | 3 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
A test of nerve as much as quality when Columbus Crew welcome New York City FC.
Columbus Crew welcome New York City FC in the MLS. We've crunched the numbers. Here's our preview.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Columbus Crew will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while New York City FC travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Too close to call with any conviction. Columbus Crew edge it at 46% but a draw (26%) is just as likely. One to tread carefully with.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Columbus Crew will be looking to make home advantage count (W10 D5 L3 at home). New York City FC's away record reads W9 D5 L7. The visitors need to start well or this could get away from them. Columbus Crew have been even sharper lately. The chances they create are worth 2.0 a game over their last 5 compared to a season average of 1.5. They're creating more as the season goes on.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Columbus Crew create chances worth 1.5 a game (and give up chances worth 1.3), leaving them +0.2 a game on the balance. New York City FC create 1.2 (giving up 1.4) for a balance of -0.2. The underlying numbers clearly favour Columbus Crew. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones. Columbus Crew are trending upwards. Their chances are worth 2.0 a game over the last 5 vs 1.5 for the season. They're in a real attacking groove.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Columbus Crew are scoring 1.6 a game (1.8 of those at home) and New York City FC manage 1.4 (1.3 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 59%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 54%.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Columbus Crew Win | @1.95 | 46.2% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.40 | 25.7% | William Hill |
| Match Result | New York City FC Win | @3.50 | 28.1% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.57 | 53.8% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.30 | 46.2% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.67 | 58.8% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.22 | 41.2% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.20 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @4.50 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.62 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.50 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Columbus Crew the favourite with a 46.2% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Columbus Crew @ 1.95, Draw @ 3.40, New York City FC @ 3.50. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Columbus Crew vs New York City FC kicks off on Thursday 23 July 2026 at 00:30 in the MLS.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 53.8% probability.
Our top prediction is Columbus Crew to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.