RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV Predictions & Odds
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A quality mismatch? RB Leipzig (2nd, 3 pts) entertain Hamburger SV (16th, 0 pts). The table positions tell a clear story, but football has a habit of humbling the favourites.
RB Leipzig's home record this season is formidable. W1 D0 L0 from 1, scoring 3.0 goals per game at home. Hamburger SV, by contrast, have struggled on the road (W0 D0 L1 from 1 away). That imbalance is hard to ignore. Season-long, RB Leipzig average 3.0 points per game compared to Hamburger SV's 0.0. that gap in consistency is hard to ignore. Both sides are prolific in front of goal. RB Leipzig average 3.0 per game and Hamburger SV chip in with 2.2. Expect an open, attacking contest. The gap in chance quality is clear: RB Leipzig come out at +0.3 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to -1.0. that's a real edge in the quality of chances.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
RB Leipzig create chances worth 2.0 a game (and give up chances worth 1.7), leaving them +0.3 a game on the balance. Hamburger SV create 1.3 (giving up 2.3) for a balance of -1.0. The underlying numbers clearly favour RB Leipzig. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones.
RB Leipzig average 3.0 goals per game and Hamburger SV manage 2.2. Combined that's just 5.2. We make it only 39% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Both teams scoring is unlikely here (29%). Interestingly, the chances suggest more goals than the headline number. RB Leipzig and Hamburger SV together create chances worth 3.3 a game. The low figure might be underrating the attacking quality here.
Both teams scoring is the pattern. It happens in 65% of RB Leipzig's home games and 59% of Hamburger SV's away matches.
The stakes are high for RB Leipzig at this stage of the season. Their fans will expect a performance, and the home support will be vocal in driving them on. Hamburger SV face a tough afternoon.
RB Leipzig are all-out attack: 3.0 goals a game, but they leak 2.0 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Hamburger SV, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at. Hamburger SV have goals in them (2.2 per game) but their record at the back (2.0 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end. The chance data suggests RB Leipzig will create openings. The chances they create are worth 2.0 a game and Hamburger SV give up chances worth 2.3 on the road. Expect RB Leipzig to see plenty of the ball.
In the last 8 meetings: RB Leipzig have won 6, Hamburger SV 1, with 1 draw. These fixtures average 3.1 goals per game. 6 of the last 8 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Hamburger SV 1-2 RB Leipzig, RB Leipzig 2-1 Hamburger SV, RB Leipzig 4-0 Hamburger SV, Hamburger SV 1-3 RB Leipzig.
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (5%) and 2-0 (3%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | RB Leipzig Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Hamburger SV Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 14:30 in the Bundesliga.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 28.8% probability.