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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 26.4% | 33.3% | 7 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 38.2% | 38.2% | 0 pts over |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Form, fitness, fine margins. Rayo Vallecano and Alavés meet in a fixture that could swing either way.
A La Liga meeting between Rayo Vallecano (8th, 50 pts) and Alavés (14th, 43 pts). Two sides with their own objectives and plenty to play for.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Rayo Vallecano will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Alavés travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Marginal call: Rayo Vallecano at just 48%. With the draw at 26%, this is anyone's game. You could make a case for Rayo Vallecano, but there's a lot to be said for playing it safe.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Rayo Vallecano's home form is particularly impressive right now. They're performing above their season average on their own turf.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Rayo Vallecano average 1.1 goals per game and Alavés manage 1.2. Combined that's just 2.2. We make it only 38% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 53%.
Both teams scoring is the pattern. It happens in 53% of Rayo Vallecano's home games and 75% of Alavés's away matches.
Neither side has much to play for in the grand scheme. no European places within reach and relegation isn't a concern. That can make for an unpredictable game with less pressure on both sides.
Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (11%) and 2-0 (7%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Rayo Vallecano Win | @2.00 | 47.5% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.00 | 26.4% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Alavés Win | @4.00 | 26.0% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @2.62 | 38.2% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.44 | 61.8% | William Hill |
Our model makes Rayo Vallecano the favourite with a 47.5% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Rayo Vallecano @ 2.00, Draw @ 3.00, Alavés @ 4.00. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Rayo Vallecano vs Alavés kicks off on Thursday 20 August 2026 at 20:00 in the La Liga.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 53.2% probability.
Our top prediction is Rayo Vallecano to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.