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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portland Timbers Win | 39.6% | 45.5% | 6 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 66.1% | 70.9% | 5 pts under |
| Both Teams to Score | 70.0% | 73.5% | 4 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
The key duel: FC Dallas's attack against Portland Timbers's back line.
There's barely anything between these two. Portland Timbers (8th, 44 pts) and FC Dallas (7th, 44 pts) meet in a fixture that could shape the MLS table.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Portland Timbers will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while FC Dallas travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Marginal call: Portland Timbers at just 40%. With the draw at 24%, this is anyone's game. You could make a case for Portland Timbers, but there's a lot to be said for playing it safe.
Our PickBoth teams to score at @1.40. Model probability 70% vs implied 71%. priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
This league is new to our model. We have not yet built a verified record here, so treat this as an early read while we track it.
Portland Timbers will be looking to make home advantage count (W9 D6 L4 at home). FC Dallas's away record reads W5 D8 L5. The visitors need to start well or this could get away from them.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Portland Timbers create chances worth 1.3 a game (and give up chances worth 1.7), leaving them -0.4 a game on the balance. FC Dallas create 1.4 (giving up 1.8) for a balance of -0.4. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Portland Timbers are scoring 1.3 a game (1.6 of those at home) and FC Dallas manage 1.5 (1.5 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 66%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. There's a good chance both teams find the net, and we make it 70%. Portland Timbers score in 68% of their games and FC Dallas in 75%, and neither back line is tight enough to bank on a clean sheet.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Portland Timbers Win | @2.20 | 39.6% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.60 | 23.5% | William Hill |
| Match Result | FC Dallas Win | @2.75 | 37.0% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.40 | 70.0% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.75 | 30.0% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.48 | 66.1% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.70 | 33.9% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.12 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @6.00 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.10 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.72 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Portland Timbers the favourite with a 39.6% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Portland Timbers @ 2.20, Draw @ 3.60, FC Dallas @ 2.75. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Portland Timbers vs FC Dallas kicks off on Thursday 23 July 2026 at 03:30 in the MLS.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 70.0% probability.
Our top prediction is Portland Timbers to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.