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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plymouth Argyle Win | 39.7% | 47.6% | 8 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 59.3% | 61.7% | 2 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
A test of nerve as much as quality when Plymouth Argyle welcome Stockport County FC.
A League One fixture between Plymouth Argyle and Stockport County FC. Here's what the numbers and form tell us ahead of kick-off.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Plymouth Argyle will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Stockport County FC travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Marginal call: Plymouth Argyle at just 40%. With the draw at 24%, this is anyone's game. You could make a case for Plymouth Argyle, but there's a lot to be said for playing it safe.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Goals look likely here. Plymouth Argyle average 2.1 per game (2.1 at home) and Stockport County FC chip in with 1.9 (1.9 away). Defensively, Plymouth Argyle concede 1.3 at home and Stockport County FC leak 1.3 on the road. We make it 59% for three or more goals. The numbers back it without being overwhelming.
Both teams scoring is the pattern. It happens in 61% of Plymouth Argyle's home games and 61% of Stockport County FC's away matches.
Plymouth Argyle are all-out attack: 2.1 goals a game, but they leak 1.3 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Stockport County FC, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at. Stockport County FC have goals in them (1.9 per game) but their record at the back (1.3 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Plymouth Argyle Win | @2.20 | 39.7% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.30 | 24.3% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Stockport County FC Win | @2.90 | 36.0% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.73 | 59.3% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.00 | 40.7% | William Hill |
Our model makes Plymouth Argyle the favourite with a 39.7% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Plymouth Argyle @ 2.20, Draw @ 3.30, Stockport County FC @ 2.90. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Plymouth Argyle vs Stockport County FC kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 15:00 in the League One.
Our top prediction is Plymouth Argyle to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.