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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC Win | 61.8% | 71.9% | 10 pts under |
| Both Teams to Score | 49.9% | 59.9% | 10 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 63.7% | 67.1% | 3 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Three points on the line and a story to write. Nashville SC host CF Montreal.
Nashville SC welcome CF Montreal in the MLS. We've crunched the numbers. Here's our preview.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Nashville SC will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while CF Montreal travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
The data leans towards Nashville SC (62%), but there's enough doubt to stay careful. CF Montreal have the tools to make this uncomfortable.
Our PickNashville SC to win at @1.40. Model probability 62% vs implied 71%. priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
This league is new to our model. We have not yet built a verified record here, so treat this as an early read while we track it.
Nashville SC's home record this season is formidable. W12 D3 L3 from 18, scoring 2.1 goals per game at home. CF Montreal, by contrast, have struggled on the road (W4 D4 L9 from 17 away). That imbalance is hard to ignore.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Nashville SC are scoring 1.6 a game (2.1 of those at home) and CF Montreal manage 1.0 (1.2 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 64%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 50%.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Nashville SC Win | @1.40 | 61.8% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @4.20 | 22.2% | William Hill |
| Match Result | CF Montreal Win | @6.50 | 16.0% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.70 | 49.9% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.05 | 50.1% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.53 | 63.7% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.52 | 36.3% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.17 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @5.25 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.25 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.62 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Nashville SC the favourite with a 61.8% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Nashville SC @ 1.40, Draw @ 4.20, CF Montreal @ 6.50. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Nashville SC vs CF Montreal kicks off on Thursday 23 July 2026 at 01:30 in the MLS.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 49.9% probability.
Our top prediction is Nashville SC to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.