Monaco vs Marseille Predictions & Odds
Odds & model pick drop in here once bookmakers price this fixture, check back closer to kickoff.
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Monaco have lost their last two; Marseille have taken 7 points from their last five. Form gives little away going into this Ligue 1 tie.
One thing to keep in mind about Monaco. They're scoring 2.0 goals per game but the quality of chances they create only works out at 1.7. Scoring that much more than the chances suggest (+0.4), that kind of hot finishing usually cools off, so their results may be flattering their actual play. Marseille are creating better chances than their goal return suggests (chance quality of 1.8 against 1.0 actual goals). They look due a few more. A concern for Marseille: they're giving up chances worth 2.0 a game over their last 5 (vs 1.4 for the season). The defence is creaking.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Monaco create chances worth 1.7 a game (and give up chances worth 1.5), leaving them +0.2 a game on the balance. Marseille create 1.8 (giving up 1.4) for a balance of +0.4. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath. Monaco are scoring 2.0 goals a game off chances worth just 1.7. That's +0.4 more than the chances suggest: finishing hot. History says this kind of run usually cools off. Marseille are creating chances worth 1.8 a game but only finishing 1.0. the underlying performance is better than the results show. A worry for Monaco: the chances they're creating lately are worth 1.2 a game, well below their 1.7 season figure. The attacking output has dipped. Marseille's defence is giving up chances. Worth 2.0 a game over their last 5 vs 1.4 for the season. They're becoming easier to break down.
Monaco average 2.0 goals per game and Marseille manage 1.0. Combined that's just 3.0. We make it only 8% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Both teams scoring is unlikely here (29%). Interestingly, the chances suggest more goals than the headline number. Monaco and Marseille together create chances worth 3.4 a game. The low figure might be underrating the attacking quality here.
Both teams score in 59% of Monaco's home games and 35% of Marseille's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
Monaco are all-out attack: 2.0 goals a game, but they leak 2.2 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Marseille, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at.
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (10%) and 1-0 (6%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Monaco Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Marseille Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Monaco vs Marseille kicks off on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 19:45 in the Ligue 1.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 28.8% probability.