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Livingston 50%, the draw 27%, Dunfermline 24%. That's the shape of this one.
The bookmakers open Livingston at @1.75 for this Scottish Championship tie, with Dunfermline out at @4.00.
Livingston average 1.0 goals per game and Dunfermline manage 0.0. Combined that's just 1.0. We make it 51% for three or more, so there's no strong lean on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 46%.
Dunfermline prefer to keep things tight (0.0 conceded per game) and nick a goal on the break. Patience will be key for Livingston against this setup.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Livingston Win | @1.75 | 49.5% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.50 | 26.9% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Dunfermline Win | @4.00 | 23.6% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.83 | 46.2% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @1.91 | 53.8% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.95 | 50.7% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.86 | 49.3% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.28 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @3.50 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @3.40 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.32 | - | Bet365 |
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Our model makes Livingston the favourite with a 49.5% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Livingston @ 1.75, Draw @ 3.50, Dunfermline @ 4.00. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Livingston vs Dunfermline kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 15:00 in the Scottish Championship.