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The model makes Jagiellonia 62% favourites here. FC Iberia 1999 carry the 17% upset.
The bookmakers open Jagiellonia at @1.35 for this Europa League tie, with FC Iberia 1999 out at @7.00.
Our PickJagiellonia to win at @1.35. Model probability 62% vs implied 74%. The market is 12pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
The goals side is finely balanced. We make it 58% for three or more. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 43%.
European nights carry a magic all of their own. The anthem, the spotlight, the occasion. Both sets of players will be desperate to deliver under the continental floodlights.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Jagiellonia Win | @1.35 | 61.9% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @4.60 | 21.6% | William Hill |
| Match Result | FC Iberia 1999 Win | @7.00 | 16.5% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.95 | 42.6% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @1.75 | 57.4% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.73 | 58.0% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.15 | 42.0% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.22 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @4.33 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.75 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.44 | - | Bet365 |
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Combined 2.19 · £5 returns £10.97
Our model makes Jagiellonia the favourite with a 61.9% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Jagiellonia @ 1.35, Draw @ 4.60, FC Iberia 1999 @ 7.00. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Jagiellonia vs FC Iberia 1999 kicks off on Thursday 20 August 2026 at 17:00 in the Europa League.