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The model makes Anderlecht 42% favourites here. Kairat Almaty carry the 31% upset.
The bookmakers open Kairat Almaty at @2.95 for this Europa League tie, with Anderlecht out at @2.66.
Kairat Almaty average 0.0 goals per game and Anderlecht manage 1.0. Combined that's just 1.0. We make it 47% for three or more, so there's no strong lean on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 48%.
European nights carry a magic all of their own. The anthem, the spotlight, the occasion. Both sets of players will be desperate to deliver under the continental floodlights.
Kairat Almaty do it the hard way: only 0.0 a game up top, but a mean 0.0 conceded. They're a tough nut to crack: they soak up pressure and hit you on the break.
Most likely scorelines: 0-0 (29%) and 1-0 (22%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Kairat Almaty Win | @2.95 | 31.3% | 1xBet |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.48 | 26.5% | 1xBet |
| Match Result | Anderlecht Win | @2.66 | 42.2% | 10Bet |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.82 | 48.1% | Betano |
| BTTS | No | @1.98 | 51.9% | Betano |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @2.07 | 47.3% | Betano |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.84 | 52.7% | Betano |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.36 | - | Betano |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @3.30 | - | Betano |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @3.60 | - | 1xBet |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.30 | - | 1xBet |
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Our model makes Anderlecht the favourite with a 42.2% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Kairat Almaty @ 2.95, Draw @ 3.48, Anderlecht @ 2.66. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Kairat Almaty vs Anderlecht kicks off on Thursday 20 August 2026 at 16:00 in the Europa League.