Houston Dynamo vs San Jose Earthquakes Predictions & Odds
Odds & model pick drop in here once bookmakers price this fixture, check back closer to kickoff.
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A MLS clash between two sides separated by just 2 places in the table. Houston Dynamo (12th, 37 pts) and San Jose Earthquakes (10th, 41 pts) both have plenty to play for.
Houston Dynamo supporters have every reason to fancy this one. Their side is flying. 3 wins on the bounce. That W-W-W-D-D run is the kind of form you dream about heading into a game like this. It's been tougher going for San Jose Earthquakes lately (L-D-L-W-L), recent form reads L-D-L-W-L. but their fans know football rarely reads the script. One good start, one moment of quality, and San Jose Earthquakes are right back in it. On paper it's Houston Dynamo's to lose, and that pressure cuts both ways. Houston Dynamo's home form is particularly impressive right now. They're performing above their season average on their own turf. A concern for San Jose Earthquakes: they're giving up chances worth 1.9 a game over their last 5 (vs 1.5 for the season). The defence is creaking.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Houston Dynamo create chances worth 1.4 a game (and give up chances worth 1.7), leaving them -0.3 a game on the balance. San Jose Earthquakes create 1.8 (giving up 1.5) for a balance of +0.3. On the quality of chances, San Jose Earthquakes look the stronger side. they create more and give up less. San Jose Earthquakes's defence is giving up chances. Worth 1.9 a game over their last 5 vs 1.5 for the season. They're becoming easier to break down.
Houston Dynamo average 1.3 goals per game and San Jose Earthquakes manage 1.8. Combined that's just 3.1. We make it only 1% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Interestingly, the chances suggest more goals than the headline number. Houston Dynamo and San Jose Earthquakes together create chances worth 3.1 a game. The low figure might be underrating the attacking quality here.
Neither side has much to play for in the grand scheme. no European places within reach and relegation isn't a concern. That can make for an unpredictable game with less pressure on both sides.
San Jose Earthquakes have goals in them (1.8 per game) but their record at the back (1.9 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Houston Dynamo Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | San Jose Earthquakes Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Houston Dynamo vs San Jose Earthquakes kicks off on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 01:30 in the MLS.