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Hapoel Beer Sheva 40%, the draw 26%, Sabah FA 35%. That's the shape of this one.
The bookmakers open Hapoel Beer Sheva at @2.25 for this Champions League tie, with Sabah FA out at @2.90.
J. Mickels has been Sabah FA's main threat, with 2 goals and 1 assists in 6 appearances, averaging 0.83 shots on target per game.
This one is wide open according to the bookmakers. Hapoel Beer Sheva at @2.25 (40%) and Sabah FA at @2.90 (35%) are closely matched, with the draw at @3.10 (26%) very much in play. When the odds are this tight, home advantage could be the deciding factor.
It's a coin-flip whether we see three or more, and we make it 50%. Neither a high-scoring game nor a tight one is much more likely than the other. For something steadier, two or more goals at @1.28 is the more conservative option.
European nights carry a magic all of their own. The anthem, the spotlight, the occasion. Both sets of players will be desperate to deliver under the continental floodlights.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Hapoel Beer Sheva Win | @2.25 | 39.7% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.10 | 25.8% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Sabah FA Win | @2.90 | 34.5% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.75 | 49.0% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.00 | 51.0% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.95 | 49.5% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.88 | 50.5% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.28 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @3.50 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @3.25 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.33 | - | Bet365 |
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Our model makes Hapoel Beer Sheva the favourite with a 39.7% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Hapoel Beer Sheva @ 2.25, Draw @ 3.10, Sabah FA @ 2.90. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Sabah FA kicks off on Wednesday 19 August 2026 at 20:00 in the Champions League.