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A test of nerve as much as quality when Guimaraes welcome Arouca.
A Primeira Liga clash between two sides separated by just 1 place in the table. Guimaraes (9th, 42 pts) and Arouca (8th, 42 pts) both have plenty to play for.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Guimaraes will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Arouca travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Guimaraes will be looking to make home advantage count (W8 D4 L5 at home). Arouca's away record reads W5 D2 L10. The visitors need to start well or this could get away from them.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Guimaraes are scoring 1.1 a game (1.5 of those at home) and Arouca manage 1.4 (1.2 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 49%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 48%.
Neither side has much to play for in the grand scheme. no European places within reach and relegation isn't a concern. That can make for an unpredictable game with less pressure on both sides.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Guimaraes Win | @1.85 | 49.2% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.40 | 25.5% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Arouca Win | @3.90 | 25.2% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.75 | 47.6% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @1.95 | 52.4% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.95 | 48.8% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.92 | 51.2% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.28 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @3.59 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @3.25 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.34 | - | Bet365 |
The bookmakers make Guimaraes the favourite here. This league is new to our model, so we show the odds and an early read rather than a rated pick until we have built a verified record.
Best available odds: Guimaraes @ 1.85, Draw @ 3.40, Arouca @ 3.90. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Guimaraes vs Arouca kicks off on Saturday 8 August 2026 at 18:00 in the Primeira Liga.