Derby vs West Brom Predictions & Odds
Odds & model pick drop in here once bookmakers price this fixture, check back closer to kickoff.
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Tricky away day for West Brom (2nd, 6 pts) as they travel to Derby (16th, 1 pts), but the visitors' league position tells you they should have more than enough here.
West Brom are no pushovers away from home. W1 D0 L0 from 1 away trips, scoring 2.0 per game on the road. Derby (W0 D1 L0 at home) can't afford to take this lightly.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Derby create chances worth 1.4 a game (and give up chances worth 1.4), leaving them +0.1 a game on the balance. West Brom create 1.6 (giving up 1.0) for a balance of +0.7. On the quality of chances, West Brom look the stronger side. they create more and give up less.
Goals look likely here. Derby average 1.5 per game (2.0 at home) and West Brom chip in with 2.5 (2.0 away). Defensively, Derby concede 2.0 at home and West Brom leak 1.0 on the road. We make it 64% for three or more goals. The numbers back it without being overwhelming. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 53%. Worth noting: despite the stats pointing to goals, this fixture has historically averaged just 1.8 per game. Their history says take it with a pinch of salt.
Both teams score in 65% of Derby's home games and 48% of West Brom's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
West Brom have goals in them (2.5 per game) but their record at the back (1.0 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.
In the last 10 meetings: Derby have won 5, West Brom 1, with 4 draws. These fixtures average 1.8 goals per game. 2 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Derby 1-1 West Brom, West Brom 0-1 Derby, West Brom 1-1 Derby.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Derby Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | West Brom Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Derby vs West Brom kicks off on Wednesday 9 September 2026 at 19:45 in the Championship.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 53.2% probability.