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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both Teams to Score | 51.5% | 61.7% | 10 pts under |
| Club Tijuana Win | 24.3% | 29.4% | 5 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 53.4% | 57.1% | 4 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced — no edge there.
Club Tijuana know what's at stake, and so do Tigres UANL.
A Liga MX fixture between Club Tijuana and Tigres UANL. Here's what the numbers and form tell us ahead of kick-off.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Club Tijuana will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Tigres UANL travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Marginal call: Tigres UANL at just 47%. With the draw at 28%, this is anyone's game. You could make a case for Tigres UANL, but there's a lot to be said for playing it safe.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
The goals side is finely balanced. We make it 53% for three or more. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 52%.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Club Tijuana Win | @3.40 | 24.3% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.10 | 28.4% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Tigres UANL Win | @1.95 | 47.4% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.62 | 51.5% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.10 | 48.5% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.80 | 53.4% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.01 | 46.6% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.25 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @3.89 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @3.00 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.40 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Tigres UANL the favourite with a 47.4% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Club Tijuana @ 3.40, Draw @ 3.10, Tigres UANL @ 1.95. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Club Tijuana vs Tigres UANL kicks off on Friday 17 July 2026 at 04:00 in the Liga MX.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 51.5% probability.
Our top prediction is Tigres UANL to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance — every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.