Match Stats
Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
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Over 11.5 Match Corners
48% (model)
Corners: Casa Pia avg 4.0 for/5.8 against, Benfica avg 11.0 for/2.3 against → expected 11.5 match corners
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Over 3.5 Match Cards
40% (model)
Cards: Casa Pia avg 2.2/game, Benfica avg 1.0/game → expected 3.2 match cards
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Over 24.5 Match Fouls
66% (model)
Fouls: Casa Pia avg 15.8/game, Benfica avg 11.0/game → expected 26.8 match fouls
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Over 26.5 Match Shots
50% (model)
Shots: Casa Pia avg 8.2/game, Benfica avg 18.5/game → expected 26.7 match shots
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
01The read
Analysing Casa Pia vs Benfica: Who Wins?
Casa Pia have failed to score in 44% of their games, and now the model gives Benfica a 70% chance on the road.
Tricky away day for Benfica (3rd, 80 pts) as they travel to Casa Pia (16th, 30 pts), but the visitors' league position tells you they should have more than enough here.
Our pick
Tracking this league
Our PickBenfica to win at @1.20. Model probability 70% vs implied 83%. The market is 13pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Key facts
⚠
Home Struggles
Casa Pia have won just 3 of 18 at home. No fortress here, and visitors will fancy their chances
✈
Strong Travellers
Benfica win 70% of their away games (W12 from 17). Dangerous visitors
😶
Blunt Attack
Casa Pia fail to score in 44% of their games. Creating chances has been a real problem
⚖
Quality Gap
Benfica's GD of +49 dwarfs Casa Pia's -24. The visitors are a level above
▸ Form & goals
Benfica are no pushovers away from home. W12 D5 L0 from 17 away trips, scoring 1.9 per game on the road. Casa Pia (W3 D9 L6 at home) can't afford to take this lightly.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Casa Pia are scoring 0.9 a game (1.1 of those at home) and Benfica manage 2.2 (1.9 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 61%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 51%.
▸ Team news & context
Benfica are similarly well-balanced. 2.2 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. This has the makings of a tight, tactical game between two organised sides.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
First Half Result
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Casa Pia HT
11.00
-
Draw HT
2.62
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Benfica HT
1.60
Latest News
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Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Casa Pia vs Benfica Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Casa Pia Win |
@13.00
|
13.0% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@6.00
|
15.1% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Benfica Win |
@1.20
|
69.9% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@2.10
|
51.0% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@1.67
|
49.0% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.65
|
61.0% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.38
|
39.0% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.20
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@4.75
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@2.62
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.52
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Casa Pia vs Benfica Team Stats
Casa Pia
Position
16
Played
36
Record
7W-13D-16L
Goals F/A
33/57
Avg Goals Scored
0.90
Points
30
Overall Form
LDWLL
Home Form
DLLD
Home Record
3W-9D-6L
Benfica
Position
3
Played
34
Record
23W-11D-0L
Goals F/A
74/25
Avg Goals Scored
2.20
Points
80
Overall Form
DWDDW
Away Form
WDW
Away Record
12W-5D-0L
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-2
9.7%
0-3
7.7%
1-3
6.1%
0-4
3.6%
1-4
2.9%
2-3
2.5%
0-5
1.4%
2-4
1.2%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Same-game fold one leg per market, live prices
-
Under 3.5 goals
69%
@1.52
Pinnacle
-
Armindo Bruma 1+ shots on target
85%
@1.18
Bet365
-
Over 7.5 corners
Smart
85%
@1.25
Betano
-
Tiago Gouveia 1+ shots on target
85%
@1.18
Bet365
-
Dodi Lukebakio 1+ shots on target
82%
@1.22
Bet365
Combined 3.23
· £5 returns
£16.14
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Cassiano Dias 1+ shots
85%
@1.18
Bet365
-
Vangelis Pavlidis 3+ shots
85%
@1.18
Bet365
-
Armindo Bruma 1+ shots on target
85%
@1.18
Bet365
-
Tiago Gouveia 1+ shots on target
85%
@1.18
Bet365
-
Over 7.5 corners
85%
@1.25
Betano
-
Benfica to win
84%
@1.25
Betano
-
Benfica over 4.5 corners
83%
@1.20
Betano
-
Benfica under 3.5 goals
83%
@1.26
Betano
-
Under 13.5 corners
83%
@1.21
Unibet
-
Under 2.5 second half goals
82%
@1.30
Betano
-
Under 4 goals
82%
@1.22
Marathon Bet
-
Casa Pia over 1.5 corners
82%
@1.26
Unibet
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