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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 42.2% | 59.9% | 18 pts under |
| Cardiff City Win | 34.4% | 45.5% | 11 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Tough night ahead for Cardiff City. Wrexham AFC arrive as the bookies' favourite.
A Championship clash between two sides separated by just 0 places in the table. Cardiff City (1st, 0 pts) and Wrexham AFC (1st, 0 pts) both have plenty to play for.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Cardiff City will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Wrexham AFC travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
A razor-thin margin: Wrexham AFC at 40%, but the draw sits at 26%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Cardiff City are scoring 2.4 a game (2.4 of those at home) and Wrexham AFC manage 1.2 (1.2 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 42%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Both teams scoring looks unlikely (just 29%). Cardiff City shut the door in 37% of their games and Wrexham AFC draw a blank in 13% of theirs, so don't be surprised if one side keeps it tight at the back.
Both teams score in 48% of Cardiff City's home games and 57% of Wrexham AFC's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
The stakes are high for Cardiff City at this stage of the season. Their fans will expect a performance, and the home support will be vocal in driving them on. Wrexham AFC face a tough afternoon.
This has title race implications written all over it. Cardiff City sit 1st while Wrexham AFC are 1st. Three points here could prove decisive come May.
Cardiff City are all-out attack: 2.4 goals a game, but they leak 1.3 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Wrexham AFC, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at.
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (9%) and 2-0 (8%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Cardiff City Win | @2.40 | 34.4% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.25 | 25.8% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Wrexham AFC Win | @2.75 | 39.7% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.75 | 42.2% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.00 | 57.8% | William Hill |
Our model makes Wrexham AFC the favourite with a 39.7% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Cardiff City @ 2.40, Draw @ 3.25, Wrexham AFC @ 2.75. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Cardiff City vs Wrexham AFC kicks off on Monday 17 August 2026 at 20:00 in the Championship.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 28.8% probability.
Our top prediction is Wrexham AFC to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.