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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 39.0% | 45.5% | 6 pts under |
| Draw | 28.0% | 33.3% | 5 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
All eyes on Burton Albion as Stevenage travel to face Burton Albion.
Burton Albion welcome Stevenage in the League One. We've crunched the numbers. Here's our preview.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Burton Albion will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Stevenage travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Too close to call with any conviction. Burton Albion edge it at 42% but a draw (28%) is just as likely. One to tread carefully with.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Burton Albion average 1.0 goals per game and Stevenage manage 0.8. Combined that's just 1.8. We make it only 39% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game.
Both teams score in 39% of Burton Albion's home games and 52% of Stevenage's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
Burton Albion do it the hard way: only 1.0 a game up top, but a mean 0.8 conceded. They're a tough nut to crack: they soak up pressure and hit you on the break.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Burton Albion Win | @2.25 | 41.5% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.00 | 28.0% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Stevenage Win | @3.10 | 30.5% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @2.30 | 39.0% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.57 | 61.0% | William Hill |
Our model makes Burton Albion the favourite with a 41.5% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Burton Albion @ 2.25, Draw @ 3.00, Stevenage @ 3.10. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Burton Albion vs Stevenage kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 15:00 in the League One.
Our top prediction is Burton Albion to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.