03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Draw |
27.3% |
32.3% |
5 pts under
|
| Over 2.5 Goals |
49.3% |
52.4% |
3 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Key Stats
🎯
Both teams scored in 65% of Bromley FC home games
🚨
Wimbledon have failed to score in 41% of matches
01The read
Analysing Bromley FC vs Wimbledon: Who Wins?
Wimbledon have drawn a blank in 41% of their games this season. Bromley FC's defence will fancy that.
Bromley FC slight edge (46%) | Predicted: 2-1
Confidence
★★★★★
Bromley FC have lost their last two; Wimbledon have lost three of their last five. Form gives little away going into this League One tie.
Our verdict
Marginal call: Bromley FC at just 46%. With the draw at 27%, this is anyone's game. You could make a case for Bromley FC, but there's a lot to be said for playing it safe.
Where's the value?
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Key facts
😶
Goal Shy
Wimbledon fail to score in 41% of their games. They go missing in front of goal far too often
📉
Home Wobble
Bromley FC arrive off 2 straight defeats. The home crowd will need something early
▸ Form & goals
Bromley FC average 1.3 goals per game and Wimbledon manage 0.4. Combined that's just 1.8. We make it 49% for three or more, so there's no strong lean on the goals line.
Both teams score in 65% of Bromley FC's home games and 48% of Wimbledon's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
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Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Bromley FC vs Wimbledon Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Bromley FC Win |
@2.40
|
46.2% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.20
|
27.3% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Wimbledon Win |
@2.80
|
39.0% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.91
|
49.3% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@1.80
|
50.7% |
William Hill |
05The numbers
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
2-1
9.0%
1-0
7.1%
2-0
6.1%
3-1
5.2%
3-2
3.8%
3-0
3.5%
4-1
2.3%
4-2
1.7%