Botafogo vs Gremio Predictions & Odds
Odds & model pick drop in here once bookmakers price this fixture, check back closer to kickoff.
Get the model's verified verdict on Botafogo (and any team you follow) emailed the moment odds drop. Free, no spam, one-click unsubscribe.
Botafogo know what's at stake, and so do Gremio.
A Brasileirão Série A clash between two sides separated by just 3 places in the table. Botafogo (6th, 63 pts) and Gremio (9th, 49 pts) both have plenty to play for.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Botafogo will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Gremio travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Too close to call with any conviction. Botafogo edge it at 0% but a draw (0%) is just as likely. One to tread carefully with.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Botafogo will be looking to make home advantage count (W11 D5 L3 at home). Gremio's away record reads W4 D5 L10. The visitors need to start well or this could get away from them.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Botafogo create chances worth 1.6 a game (and give up chances worth 1.3), leaving them +0.3 a game on the balance. Gremio create 1.6 (giving up 1.3) for a balance of +0.3. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Botafogo average 1.5 goals per game and Gremio manage 1.2. Combined that's just 2.7. We make it only 1% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Interestingly, the chances suggest more goals than the headline number. Botafogo and Gremio together create chances worth 3.2 a game. The low figure might be underrating the attacking quality here.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Botafogo Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Gremio Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Botafogo vs Gremio kicks off on Wednesday 29 July 2026 at 21:00 in the Brasileirão Série A.