Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig Predictions & Odds
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Bayer Leverkusen (13th, 0 pts) face the unenviable task of hosting in-form RB Leipzig (3rd, 3 pts). The gap in quality should tell, but home advantage can be a great leveller.
Season-long, RB Leipzig average 3.0 points per game compared to Bayer Leverkusen's 0.0. that gap in consistency is hard to ignore. Both sides are prolific in front of goal. Bayer Leverkusen average 2.0 per game and RB Leipzig chip in with 3.0. Expect an open, attacking contest.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Bayer Leverkusen create chances worth 2.5 a game (and give up chances worth 1.9), leaving them +0.6 a game on the balance. RB Leipzig create 2.0 (giving up 1.7) for a balance of +0.3. The underlying numbers clearly favour Bayer Leverkusen. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones.
Goals look likely here. Bayer Leverkusen average 2.0 per game (2.0 at home) and RB Leipzig chip in with 3.0 (3.0 away). Defensively, Bayer Leverkusen concede 3.0 at home and RB Leipzig leak 2.3 on the road. We make it 71% for three or more goals. One of the stronger cases for goals today. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 50%. Their past meetings back this up. These two average 3.7 goals when they meet, with 7 of the last 10 producing three or more. The chance-quality data backs the goals case. Bayer Leverkusen create chances worth 2.5 a game and RB Leipzig 2.0. Combined, that's 4.5 a game from open play alone.
Both teams scoring is the pattern. It happens in 65% of Bayer Leverkusen's home games and 59% of RB Leipzig's away matches.
Bayer Leverkusen are all-out attack: 2.0 goals a game, but they leak 3.0 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at RB Leipzig, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at. RB Leipzig have goals in them (3.0 per game) but their record at the back (2.3 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end. The chance data suggests Bayer Leverkusen will create openings. The chances they create are worth 2.5 a game and RB Leipzig give up chances worth 1.7 on the road. Expect Bayer Leverkusen to see plenty of the ball.
In the last 10 meetings: Bayer Leverkusen have won 6, RB Leipzig 3, with 1 draw. These fixtures average 3.7 goals per game. 7 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Both teams have scored in most of their recent meetings, so there's a good chance both find the net again. Recent results: Bayer Leverkusen 4-1 RB Leipzig, RB Leipzig 1-3 Bayer Leverkusen, RB Leipzig 2-2 Bayer Leverkusen, Bayer Leverkusen 2-3 RB Leipzig.
Most likely scorelines: 2-2 (6%) and 2-3 (6%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Bayer Leverkusen Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | RB Leipzig Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 14:30 in the Bundesliga.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 50.1% probability.