03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Alaves Win |
34.7% |
43.5% |
9 pts under
|
| Both Teams to Score |
47.4% |
43.5% |
4 pts over
|
| Over 2.5 Goals |
37.1% |
34.8% |
2 pts over
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Key Stats
🎯
Both teams scored in 74% of Alaves home games
🚨
Getafe have failed to score in 45% of matches
01The read
Can Getafe Get the Job Done at Alaves?
Alaves 35%, the draw 31%, Getafe 40%. That's the shape of this one.
Getafe slight edge (40%) | Lower-scoring game likely (63%) | Predicted: 0-1
Confidence
★★★★★
Alaves have taken 7 points from their last five; Getafe have taken 7 points from their last five. Form gives little away going into this La Liga tie.
Our verdict
Marginal call: Getafe at just 40%. With the draw at 31%, this is anyone's game. You could make a case for Getafe, but there's a lot to be said for playing it safe.
Where's the value?
Strong value spotted: Getafe to win at @3.50 (our model: 40%, bookmakers imply: 29%). That's a 11% edge over the bookmakers' pricing. one of the bigger discrepancies we've found today.
Key facts
😶
Goal Shy
Getafe fail to score in 45% of their games. They go missing in front of goal far too often
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 63% of Alaves's matches. Their games rarely stay quiet
▸ Form & goals
The gap in chance quality is clear: Alaves come out at +0.4 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to -0.3. that's a real edge in the quality of chances.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Alaves create chances worth 1.4 a game (and give up chances worth 1.1), leaving them +0.4 a game on the balance. Getafe create 0.9 (giving up 1.2) for a balance of -0.3. The underlying numbers clearly favour Alaves. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones.
Alaves average 1.3 goals per game and Getafe manage 0.8. Combined that's just 2.1. We make it only 37% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 47%.
Both teams score in 74% of Alaves's home games and 26% of Getafe's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (13%) and 1-0 (12%).
First Half Result
-
Alaves HT
3.10
-
Draw HT
1.85
-
Getafe HT
4.20
Latest News
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Team Intel
📊 Alaves · xG
For: 1.43/g
Against: 1.06/g
⚠️ Outscoring xG by 0.37/g, possibly running hot
📊 Getafe · xG
For: 0.91/g
Against: 1.19/g
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Alaves vs Getafe Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Alaves Win |
@2.30
|
34.7% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@2.75
|
31.3% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Getafe Win |
@3.50
|
39.8% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@2.30
|
47.4% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@1.57
|
52.6% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@3.20
|
37.1% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@1.39
|
62.9% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.67
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@2.23
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@6.50
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.13
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Alaves vs Getafe Team Stats
Alaves
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Getafe CF
Position
7
Played
38
Record
15W-6D-17L
Goals F/A
32/38
Avg Goals Scored
0.84
Points
51
Overall Form
WLWDL
Away Form
LDW
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-1
13.3%
1-0
11.7%
0-1
11.6%
0-0
10.2%
2-0
6.7%
0-2
6.6%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Same-game fold one leg per market, live prices
-
Under 2.5 goals
76%
@1.39
Betano
-
Over 3.5 cards
84%
@1.19
Betano
-
Getafe under 5.5 corners
Smart
82%
@1.28
Betano
-
Lucas Boye 1+ shots on target
75%
@1.33
Bet365
Combined 2.82
· £5 returns
£14.08
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Under 1.5 first half goals
85%
@1.22
10Bet
-
Over 3.5 cards
84%
@1.19
Betano
-
Under 8.5 cards
83%
@1.20
Betano
-
Angel Hidalgo Perez 1+ shots
82%
@1.22
Bet365
-
Over 1 goals
82%
@1.24
BetVictor
-
Getafe under 5.5 corners
82%
@1.28
Betano
-
Alaves under 7 corners
82%
@1.22
1xBet
-
Under 11.5 corners
81%
@1.25
Unibet
-
Alaves over 3.5 corners
81%
@1.30
Unibet
-
Getafe over 2.5 corners
81%
@1.35
Unibet
-
Alaves or Draw (double chance)
80%
@1.31
1xBet
-
Denis Suarez 1+ shots
80%
@1.25
Bet365
Build a slip from these markets →