03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Both Teams to Score |
52.1% |
62.5% |
10 pts under
|
| Racing Santander Win |
28.8% |
36.0% |
7 pts under
|
| Over 2.5 Goals |
54.2% |
58.1% |
4 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
01The read
Racing Santander Host Villarreal: Our Prediction
Racing Santander 29%, the draw 28%, Villarreal 43%. That's the shape of this one.
Villarreal slight edge (43%) | Predicted: 0-1
Confidence
★★★★★
The bookmakers open Racing Santander at @3.10 for this La Liga tie, with Villarreal out at @2.20.
Our verdict
Marginal call: Villarreal at just 43%. With the draw at 28%, this is anyone's game. You could make a case for Villarreal, but there's a lot to be said for playing it safe.
Where's the value?
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Key facts
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 63% of Villarreal's matches this season
▸ Form & goals
Racing Santander average 0.0 goals per game and Villarreal manage 1.9. Combined that's just 1.9. We make it 54% for three or more, so there's no strong lean on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 52%.
▸ Team news & context
Racing Santander do it the hard way: only 0.0 a game up top, but a mean 0.0 conceded. They're a tough nut to crack: they soak up pressure and hit you on the break. Villarreal have goals in them (1.9 per game) but their record at the back (1.2 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
Most likely scorelines: 0-0 (21%) and 0-1 (20%).
First Half Result
-
Racing Santander HT
3.60
-
Draw HT
2.25
-
Villarreal HT
2.62
Latest News
Loading latest news...
Team Intel
📊 Villarreal · xG
For: 1.64/g
Against: 1.17/g
⚠️ Outscoring xG by 0.46/g, possibly running hot
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Racing Santander vs Villarreal Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Racing Santander Win |
@3.10
|
28.8% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.30
|
27.8% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Villarreal Win |
@2.20
|
43.4% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.67
|
52.1% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@2.15
|
47.9% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.80
|
54.2% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.10
|
45.8% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.25
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@4.10
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@3.00
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.42
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Racing Santander vs Villarreal Team Stats
Racing Santander
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Villarreal CF
Position
3
Played
38
Record
22W-6D-10L
Goals F/A
72/46
Avg Goals Scored
1.89
Points
72
Overall Form
WLLDW
Away Form
LDD
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
0-0
21.2%
0-1
20.1%
1-0
12.8%
1-1
12.1%
0-2
9.5%
1-2
5.7%
2-0
3.9%
2-1
3.7%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Same-game fold one leg per market, live prices
-
Over 1.5 goals
Smart
82%
@1.27
Betano
-
Racing Santander under 6.5 corners
Smart
84%
@1.30
Unibet
-
Over 2.5 cards
83%
@1.21
Betano
-
Georges Mikautadze 1+ shots on target
82%
@1.22
Bet365
-
Ayoze Perez 1+ shots on target
80%
@1.25
Bet365
Combined 3.05
· £5 returns
£15.23
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Under 2.5 second half goals
85%
@1.25
Betano
-
Villarreal under 2.5 goals
85%
@1.22
Pinnacle
-
Villarreal over 0.5 goals
85%
@1.22
Betano
-
Andres Martin 2+ shots
85%
@1.18
Bet365
-
Nicolas Pepe 2+ shots
85%
@1.18
Bet365
-
Racing Santander under 6.5 corners
84%
@1.30
Unibet
-
Over 7.5 corners
83%
@1.29
Betano
-
Villarreal under 6.5 corners
83%
@1.28
Betano
-
Over 2.5 cards
83%
@1.21
Betano
-
Over 1.5 goals
82%
@1.27
Betano
-
Georges Mikautadze 1+ shots on target
82%
@1.22
Bet365
-
Under 6.5 cards
82%
@1.33
Unibet
Build a slip from these markets →