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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both Teams to Score | 52.1% | 62.5% | 10 pts under |
| Wycombe Win | 34.4% | 44.1% | 10 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 53.1% | 56.8% | 4 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
34% against 38%: the model can barely split Wycombe and Plymouth.
Wycombe have taken four points from their last four; Plymouth have won three of their last four. The visitors bring the sharper form into this League One tie.
Marginal call: Plymouth at just 38%. With the draw at 28%, this is anyone's game. You could make a case for Plymouth, but there's a lot to be said for playing it safe.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Both sides are prolific in front of goal. Wycombe average 2.0 per game and Plymouth chip in with 2.0. Expect an open, attacking contest.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Wycombe are scoring 2.0 a game (2.0 of those at home) and Plymouth manage 2.0 (2.0 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 53%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 52%.
Both teams score in 48% of Wycombe's home games and 48% of Plymouth's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
Wycombe are all-out attack: 2.0 goals a game, but they leak 2.3 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Plymouth, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at. Plymouth have goals in them (2.0 per game) but their record at the back (1.5 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.
In the last 10 meetings: Wycombe have won 4, Plymouth 3, with 3 draws. These fixtures average 1.7 goals per game. 1 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Plymouth 1-1 Wycombe, Wycombe 0-1 Plymouth, Wycombe 2-0 Plymouth.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Wycombe Win | @2.62 | 34.4% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.25 | 27.8% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Plymouth Win | @2.50 | 37.8% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.62 | 52.1% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @2.20 | 47.9% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.80 | 53.1% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.06 | 46.9% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.25 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @4.10 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @3.00 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.41 | - | Bet365 |
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Our model makes Plymouth the favourite with a 37.8% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Wycombe @ 2.62, Draw @ 3.25, Plymouth @ 2.50. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Wycombe vs Plymouth kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 15:00 in the League One.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 52.1% probability.
Our top prediction is Plymouth to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.