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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Racing Club de Santander Win | 26.4% | 32.3% | 6 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 48.8% | 54.1% | 5 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
All eyes on Real Racing Club de Santander as Villarreal travel to face Real Racing Club de Santander.
A La Liga fixture between Real Racing Club de Santander and Villarreal. Here's what the numbers and form tell us ahead of kick-off.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Real Racing Club de Santander will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Villarreal travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Marginal call: Villarreal at just 46%. With the draw at 27%, this is anyone's game. You could make a case for Villarreal, but there's a lot to be said for playing it safe.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Villarreal are the marginal favourites at 46%, but this isn't a one-sided affair. Real Racing Club de Santander will fancy their chances and the draw at 27% can't be ruled out. Expect a competitive contest. The margins between these two are slim.
It's a coin-flip whether we see three or more, and we make it 49%. Neither a high-scoring game nor a tight one is much more likely than the other.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Real Racing Club de Santander Win | @3.30 | 26.4% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.40 | 27.4% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Villarreal Win | @2.10 | 46.2% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.91 | 48.8% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.85 | 51.2% | William Hill |
Our model makes Villarreal the favourite with a 46.2% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Real Racing Club de Santander @ 3.30, Draw @ 3.40, Villarreal @ 2.10. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Real Racing Club de Santander vs Villarreal kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 16:00 in the La Liga.
Our top prediction is Villarreal to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.