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Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
All eyes on Vasco da Gama as Santos travel to face Vasco da Gama.
There's barely anything between these two. Vasco da Gama (14th, 45 pts) and Santos (12th, 47 pts) meet in a fixture that could shape the Brasileirão Série A table.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Vasco da Gama will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Santos travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Neither side arrives in vintage form. Vasco da Gama have gone D-D-L-L-L, Santos's L-D-D-L-L reads much the same, but that's exactly the kind of game where one moment settles it and a whole fanbase goes home happy. Tight, tense, and there for the taking for whoever holds their nerve.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Vasco da Gama create chances worth 1.0 a game (and give up chances worth 1.6), leaving them -0.5 a game on the balance. Santos create 1.3 (giving up 1.3) for a balance of +0.1. On the quality of chances, Santos look the stronger side. they create more and give up less. A worry for Vasco da Gama: the chances they're creating lately are worth 0.7 a game, well below their 1.0 season figure. The attacking output has dipped.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Vasco da Gama are scoring 1.4 a game (1.6 of those at home) and Santos manage 1.2 (1.1 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 47%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 46%.
Neither side has much to play for in the grand scheme. no European places within reach and relegation isn't a concern. That can make for an unpredictable game with less pressure on both sides.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Vasco da Gama Win | @1.95 | 46.7% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.25 | 25.0% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Santos Win | @3.70 | 28.2% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.85 | 46.2% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @1.85 | 53.8% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @2.00 | 47.3% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.82 | 52.7% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.33 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @3.40 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @3.50 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.31 | - | Bet365 |
Our model makes Vasco da Gama the favourite with a 46.7% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Vasco da Gama @ 1.95, Draw @ 3.25, Santos @ 3.70. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Vasco da Gama vs Santos kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 20:00 in the Brasileirão Série A.