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The model makes Tigres UANL 59% favourites here. Atlante FC carry the 19% upset.
Tigres UANL are winless in their last five; Atlante FC have taken five points from their last four. The visitors bring the sharper form into this Liga MX tie.
Our PickTigres UANL to win at @1.40. Model probability 59% vs implied 71%. The market is 13pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Tigres UANL are scoring 1.8 a game (1.8 of those at home) and Atlante FC manage 1.3 (1.3 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 59%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 48%.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Tigres UANL Win | @1.40 | 58.7% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @4.00 | 22.3% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Atlante FC Win | @5.80 | 19.0% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.75 | 47.6% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @1.91 | 52.4% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.62 | 58.9% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.25 | 41.1% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.18 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @4.50 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @2.50 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.50 | - | Bet365 |
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Combined 3.19 · £5 returns £15.94
Our model makes Tigres UANL the favourite with a 58.7% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Tigres UANL @ 1.40, Draw @ 4.00, Atlante FC @ 5.80. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Tigres UANL vs Atlante FC kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 02:00 in the Liga MX.