01The read
Club Queretaro vs Toluca: Match Preview & Prediction
Club Queretaro 24%, the draw 26%, Toluca 51%. That's the shape of this one.
Club Queretaro have won three of their last five; Toluca have taken 7 points from their last five. Form gives little away going into this Liga MX tie.
Our pick
Tracking this league
Our PickThree or more goals at @1.53. Model probability 63% vs implied 65%. Priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
Key facts
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 67% of Club Queretaro's matches. Their games rarely stay quiet
🎯
Goals Lean
We make it 63% for three or more goals in this one
▸ Form & goals
Goals are a tough one to call here. Club Queretaro are scoring 1.3 a game (1.3 of those at home) and Toluca manage 1.6 (1.6 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 63%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 56%.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
First Half Result
-
Club Queretaro HT
4.00
-
Draw HT
2.40
-
Toluca HT
2.15
Latest News
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Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Club Queretaro vs Toluca Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Club Queretaro Win |
@3.75
|
23.7% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.40
|
25.7% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Toluca Win |
@1.75
|
50.6% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.50
|
56.4% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@2.38
|
43.6% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.53
|
63.1% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.44
|
36.9% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.17
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@5.04
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@2.25
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.58
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-2
8.1%
1-3
3.6%
0-3
2.6%
2-3
2.4%
1-4
1.2%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Same-game fold one leg per market, live prices
-
Alexis Vega 1+ shots on target
85%
@1.18
Bet365
-
Toluca over 3.5 corners
Smart
85%
@1.18
Unibet
-
Club Queretaro or Toluca (double chance)
83%
@1.26
Unibet
-
Ivan Lopez 1+ shots on target
80%
@1.25
Bet365
-
Helinho 1+ shots on target
80%
@1.25
Bet365
Combined 2.74
· £5 returns
£13.71
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Alexis Vega 3+ shots
85%
@1.18
Bet365
-
Diego Barbosa 1+ shots
85%
@1.18
Bet365
-
Alexis Vega 1+ shots on target
85%
@1.18
Bet365
-
Toluca over 1 goals
85%
@1.18
Marathon Bet
-
Toluca over 3.5 corners
85%
@1.18
Unibet
-
Club Queretaro or Toluca (double chance)
83%
@1.26
Unibet
-
Over 7.5 corners
83%
@1.20
Unibet
-
Over 2 goals
83%
@1.21
Marathon Bet
-
Under 2 first half goals
83%
@1.21
Marathon Bet
-
Over 0.5 first half goals
82%
@1.32
Betano
-
Toluca or Draw (double chance)
82%
@1.28
Unibet
-
Under 12.5 corners
81%
@1.27
Betano
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